Explaining (and re-explaining) political change in the Middle East during the Arab Spring: trajectories of democratization and of authoritarianism in the Maghreb
Explaining (and re-explaining) political change in the Middle East during the Arab Spring: trajectories of democratization and of authoritarianism in the Maghreb
复制标题
解释（和重新解释）阿拉伯之春期间中东的政治变化：马格里布民主化和威权主义的轨迹
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发表时间：
2013
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. Volpi
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作者：
F. Volpi
在2011年阿拉伯之春之后，一个紧迫的问题是理解为什么一些独裁政权仍然掌权，而其他政权在面临类似困难时垮台。早些时候对中东和北非独裁主义成功的描述，造成了人们对该地区政治有效行为的普遍误解。地方独裁者和国际行为者都认同这些观点，这促使他们提出临时性的政策调整，以应对民众起义的蔓延。反过来，这些政策反应又直接促成了该区域若干国家独裁主义的失败和民主革命的产生。这种革命性的选择，虽然结构上的（缺乏）机会，目前在每个政体，是不可预测的事件，因为它们依赖于精英的错误评估的情况下，是有效的（如在突尼斯，利比亚）。反过来，当独裁政权提供了改革途径时，政府可以将其引导到非革命的政治行动中（如摩洛哥和阿尔及利亚）。
After the 2011 Arab Spring, a pressing concern is to understand why some authoritarian regimes remain in power while others fall when confronted with similar difficulties. Earlier representations of the success of authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa generated common misperceptions concerning politically effective behaviour in the region. These views, shared by local autocrats and international actors alike, led them to propose ad hoc policy reorientations in response to a contagion of popular uprisings. In their turn, these policy responses directly contributed to the failure of authoritarianism and the production of democratic revolutions in several countries of the region. Such revolutionary options, although structured by the (lack of) opportunities for contestation present in each polity, are not predicable events as they depend on elite mis-assessments of the situation to be effective (as in Tunisia, Libya). Reciprocally, when reform pathways are made available by authoritarian regimes, contestation can be channelled into non-revolutionary political action (as in Morocco, Algeria).