THE EFFECT OF REGISTRATION LAWS AND EDUCATION ON U.S. VOTER TURNOUT
THE EFFECT OF REGISTRATION LAWS AND EDUCATION ON U.S. VOTER TURNOUT
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登记法和教育对美国选民投票率的影响
DOI：
10.2307/1963952
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Jonathan Nagler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jonathan Nagler
我表明，限制性的登记法并不劝阻教育水平较低的个人比教育水平较高的个人投票。这一发现与Wolfinger和Rosenstone对投票率的经典分析相矛盾。我证明了他们的结论实际上是他们所采用的方法的产物。当用于确定两个独立变量之间的交互效应时，检查由probit或logit等非线性模型生成的预测概率可能会产生虚假结果。通过重新定义投票率的模型，明确包括条款来检验互动的假设和重新分析的数据从1972年的当前人口调查（以及数据从1984年的调查），我表明，事实上，没有这种实质性的互动效果之间的登记法和个人的教育水平存在于微观层面。
I show that restrictive registration laws do not dissuade individuals with lower levels of education from voting any more than individuals with higher levels of education. This finding contradicts the result reported in Wolfinger and Rosenstone's classic analysis of turnout. I show that their conclusion was actually an artifact of the methodology they employed. Examining predicted probabilities generated by a nonlinear model such as probit or logit may produce spurious results when used to determine interactive effects between two independent variables. By respecifying the model of turnout to explicitly include terms to test interactive hypotheses and reanalyzing the data from the 1972 Current Population Survey (as well as data from the 1984 survey), I show that in fact, no such substantive interactive effect between registration laws and individuals' level of education exists at the micro level.