CHALLENGES IN QUANTIFYING CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL WATER CYCLE
CHALLENGES IN QUANTIFYING CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL WATER CYCLE
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DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-13-00212.1
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发表时间：
2015-07-01
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Zhang, Xuebin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hegerl, Gabriele C.;Black, Emily;Zhang, Xuebin
了解观测到的全球水循环变化是预测未来气候变化及其影响的关键。虽然许多数据集记录了降水、海洋盐度、径流和湿度等关键变量，但大多数数据集在确定长期变化方面都是不确定的。原位网络提供陆地上的长时间序列，但在许多地区（特别是热带地区）很稀疏。卫星和再分析数据集覆盖全球，但缺乏长期稳定性。然而，对相关变量之间的变化进行比较可以深入了解所观察到的变化的稳健性。例如，通过对海洋过程的理解来解释海洋盐度，可以帮助交叉验证降水。人类影响水循环的观测证据正在出现，但内部变异和观测误差造成的不确定性太大，无法确定观测和模拟的变化是否一致。需要改进监测不断变化的水循环的现场和卫星观测网络，但资金的减少威胁到数据的持续覆盖。由于人为气溶胶作用的不确定性和气候的巨大变异性，目前限制了对观测到的变化归因的信心。
Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time series over land, but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols and because of the large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes.