Future Risk for Southern Ocean Ecosystem Services Under Climate Change
Future Risk for Southern Ocean Ecosystem Services Under Climate Change
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DOI：
10.3389/fmars.2020.615214
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发表时间：
2021-01-08
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Hill, Simeon L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cavanagh, Rachel D.;Melbourne-Thomas, Jess;Hill, Simeon L.
南大洋支持在全球范围内重要的生态系统服务。气候变化和人类活动（旅游、渔业和研究）将影响未来对这些服务的需求和提供。在这里，我们综合了最近对南大洋生态系统的现状和预期未来气候驱动的变化的评估，并评估了这些变化对提供生态系统服务的潜在影响。我们详细探讨了三个关键服务（“蓝碳”途径，南极磷虾渔业和南极旅游业），从物理驱动因素到生物影响，再到对人类的好处，追踪气候变化的后果。我们考虑了潜在的非气候变化驱动因素、当前和未来的服务需求，以及可用于管理气候变化中提供这些服务的风险的主要全球和区域政策框架。我们还开发了一个正式的代表性的网络之间的互动套件的潜在驱动程序和套件的服务，提供了一个框架来捕捉这个网络的复杂性和嵌入式反馈回路。需要更多地考虑驱动因素与生态系统服务之间的联系和反馈，以支持今后强有力的管理对策。
The Southern Ocean supports ecosystem services that are important on a global scale. Climate change and human activities (tourism, fishing, and research) will affect both the demand for, and the provision of, these services into the future. Here we synthesize recent assessments of the current status and expected future climate-driven changes in Southern Ocean ecosystems and evaluate the potential consequences of these changes for the provision of ecosystem services. We explore in detail three key services (the 'blue carbon' pathway, the Antarctic krill fishery, and Antarctic tourism), tracing the consequences of climate change from physical drivers through biological impacts to the benefits to humans. We consider potential non-climatic drivers of change, current and future demands for the services, and the main global and regional policy frameworks that could be used to manage risks to the provision of these services in a changing climate. We also develop a formal representation of the network of interactions between the suite of potential drivers and the suite of services, providing a framework to capture the complexity of this network and its embedded feedback loops. Increased consideration of the linkages and feedbacks between drivers and ecosystem services will be required to underpin robust management responses into the future.