Simulation of Land Use Changes in a Coastal Reclaimed Area with Dynamic Shorelines
Simulation of Land Use Changes in a Coastal Reclaimed Area with Dynamic Shorelines
复制标题
具有动态海岸线的沿海填海区土地利用变化模拟
DOI：
10.3390/su9030431
复制
发表时间：
2017-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Chen, Tao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
She, Jiangfeng;Guan, Zhongqing;Chen, Tao
填海造地可以创造丰富的土地，缓解中国土地短缺的压力。然而，沿海填海可能会导致严重的环境退化和景观破碎化。监测沿海地区土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)、评估滨海湿地变化、预测土地利用需求是十分重要的。潮滩的淤积将导致沿海地区的动态增长和持续扩张。因此，沿海地区的土地变化过程不同于固定陆地边界条件下的土地变化过程。元胞自动机和多智能体系统(CA-MAS)模型是模拟土地利用/覆被变化的常用模型，它们在固定边界条件下的优越性已经得到了很好的证明。本文提出了CA-MAS与岸线演变预测相结合的模型(CA-MAS-SEF)来模拟沿海地区的土地变化。同时，在模拟过程中考虑了由于滩涂动态生长而增加的新面积。对改进方法的仿真结果进行了验证，并与空间叠加观测方向图进行了比较。与不考虑潮滩扩张的模拟结果相比，考虑潮滩动态生长时的Kappa系数由65.9%提高到70.5%，表明该方法可用于沿海发育区土地利用/覆被变化的模拟。
Reclamation is capable of creating abundant land to alleviate the pressure from land shortages in China. Nevertheless, coastal reclamation can lead to severe environmental degradation and landscape fragmentation. It is quite important to monitor land use and cover change (LUCC) in coastal areas, assess coastal wetland change, and predict land use requirements. The siltation of tidal flats will result in the dynamic growth and continuous expansion of coastal areas. Therefore, the process of land change in coastal areas is different from that under the fixed terrestrial boundary condition. Cellular Automata and Multi-Agent System (CA-MAS) models are commonly used to simulate LUCC, and their advantages have been well proven under the fixed boundary condition. In this paper, we propose CA-MAS combined with a shoreline evolution forecast (CA-MAS-SEF) model to simulate the land change in coastal areas. Meanwhile, the newly increased area, because of the dynamic growth of tidal flats, is considered in the simulation process. The simulation results using the improved method are verified, and compared with observed patterns using spatial overlay. In comparison with simulation results that do not consider the expansion of tidal flats, the Kappa coefficient estimated while considering the dynamic growth of tidal flats is improved from 65.9% to 70.5%, which shows that the method presented here can be applied to simulate the LUCC in growing coastal areas.