Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing
Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abb6936
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发表时间：
2020-05-08
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Fraser, Christophe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ferretti, Luca;Wymant, Chris;Fraser, Christophe
新出现的人类病毒SARS-CoV-2（严重急性呼吸道综合征-冠状病毒2）导致高死亡率和卫生系统瘫痪。防止进一步传播是一个优先事项。我们分析了流行病传播的关键参数，以估计不同传播途径的贡献，并确定阻止流行病所需的病例隔离和接触者追踪要求。尽管SARS-CoV-2传播速度太快，无法通过人工接触追踪来控制，但如果这个过程更快，更有效，并且大规模发生，它是可以控制的。如果有足够多的人使用，建立近距离接触记忆并立即通知接触者阳性病例的接触者追踪应用程序可以实现疫情控制。通过只针对高危人群提出建议，可以在不诉诸对社会有害的大规模封锁的情况下遏制流行病。我们讨论这种干预的伦理要求。
The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2) is resulting in high fatality rates and incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analyzed key parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and determine requirements for case isolation and contact tracing needed to stop the epidemic. Although SARS-CoV-2 is spreading too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, it could be controlled if this process were faster, more efficient, and happened at scale. A contact-tracing app that builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people. By targeting recommendations to only those at risk, epidemics could be contained without resorting to mass quarantines ("lockdowns") that are harmful to society. We discuss the ethical requirements for an intervention of this kind.