Conservation management approaches to protecting the capacity for corals to respond to climate change: a theoretical comparison
Conservation management approaches to protecting the capacity for corals to respond to climate change: a theoretical comparison
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02062.x
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发表时间：
2010-04-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Gaines, Steven D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baskett, Marissa L.;Nisbet, Roger M.;Gaines, Steven D.
多种人为影响，包括与气候变化相关的热压力造成的白化，威胁着珊瑚礁。保护珊瑚应对未来随着气候变化而增加的热应力的能力可涉及：(1)保护具有表明对气候变化的抵抗力和复原力更强的特征的珊瑚礁，以及(2)减少更有可能降低珊瑚对气候变化的抵抗力和复原力的其他人为影响。在这里，我们对保护珊瑚应对气候变化能力的可能优先事项和现有建议进行量化比较。具体地说，我们探索了在给定预测的未来热应力的情况下，珊瑚和虫黄藻生态和进化动力学的大小结构模型中相关动力学、过程和参数的相对重要性。不同初始条件下的模型结果表明，保护不同的珊瑚群落是关键，保护具有更多耐热珊瑚物种和共生类型的较高丰度的群落是次要的，而不是长期维持珊瑚覆盖。对每个大小类别的珊瑚种群大小和总珊瑚覆盖率对所有参数值的敏感性分析表明，减少影响珊瑚-大型藻类竞争、早期珊瑚生活史阶段和珊瑚生存(与繁殖、生长和萎缩相比)的额外人为影响具有更大的相对重要性。最后，对不同地点、有无连接的温度轨迹的模拟结果表明，对低热应力地点的保护和与这些地点的连接可能会增强珊瑚应对气候变化的能力。
Multiple anthropogenic impacts, including bleaching from climate change-related thermal stress, threaten coral reefs. Protecting coral capacity to respond to the increase in future thermal stress expected with climate change can involve (1) protecting coral reefs with characteristics indicative of greater resistance and resilience to climate change, and (2) reducing other anthropogenic impacts that are more likely to reduce coral resistance and resilience to climate change. Here, we quantitatively compare possible priorities and existing recommendations for protecting coral response capacity to climate change. Specifically, we explore the relative importance of the relevant dynamics, processes, and parameters in a size-structured model of coral and zooxanthellae ecological and evolutionary dynamics given projected future thermal stress. Model results with varying initial conditions indicate that protecting diverse coral communities is critical, and protecting communities with higher abundances of more thermally tolerant coral species and symbiont types secondary, to the long-term maintenance of coral cover. A sensitivity analysis of the coral population size in each size class and the total coral cover with respect to all parameter values suggests greater relative importance of reducing additional anthropogenic impacts that affect coral-macroalgal competition, early coral life history stages, and coral survivorship (compared with reproduction, growth, and shrinkage). Finally, model results with temperature trajectories from different locations, with and without connectivity, indicate that protection of, and connectivity to, low-thermal-stress locations may enhance the capacity for corals to respond to climate change.