Back-projection estimates of the number of dependent heroin users in Australia
Back-projection estimates of the number of dependent heroin users in Australia
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DOI：
10.1046/j.1360-0443.2001.9634337.x
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发表时间：
2001-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Hall, W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Law, MG;Lynskey, M;Hall, W
目标。为了计划对澳大利亚海洛因使用采取适当的应对措施，需要对海洛因依赖者的数量进行良好的估计，这些群体最需要治疗，最有可能发生阿片类药物过量致命的风险，以及最有可能感染和传播血源性病毒的风险。方法。使用反投影方法估计了 1960 年至 1997 年间澳大利亚开始依赖海洛因注射的人数。单独的分析基于全国阿片类药物过量死亡和新南威尔士州 (NSW) 新进入美沙酮治疗的人数。海洛因依赖者停止使用海洛因、开始美沙酮治疗或因阿片类药物过量死亡的比率是根据外部数据来源估计的。结果。对阿片类药物过量死亡的反推估计表明，1960 年至 1997 年间澳大利亚有 104 000 人（下限 72 000 人，上限 157 000 人）海洛因依赖者。据估计，其中 67 000 人（39 000-120 000 人）到 1997 年底仍然依赖海洛因。根据新南威尔士州新进入美沙酮治疗人数进行的反投影估计表明，1960 年至 1997 年间，澳大利亚有 108 000 人（82 000-141 000 人）海洛因依赖者，其中 1997 年底估计有 71 000 人（47 000-109 000 人）为海洛因依赖者。两项分析均表明，这一数字自 20 世纪 70 年代初以来，澳大利亚吸食海洛因的人数大幅增加。结论。基于治疗条目和阿片类药物过量死亡分析的反投影估计为估计人口中海洛因依赖者的数量提供了另一种方法。将这些方法添加到现有方法中，使用不同的数据源和统计方法，应该可以改善对海洛因依赖人数的共识估计。
Aims. To plan an appropriate response to heroin use in Australia, good estimates are needed of the numbers of dependent heroin users, the group who are most in need of treatment, most at risk of fatal opioid overdose and most at risk of contracting and transmitting blood-borne viruses. Methods. Back-projection methods were used to estimate the numbers of people starting dependent heroin injecting in Australia between 1960 and 1997. Separate analyses were based on national opioid overdose deaths and numbers of new entrants to methadone treatment in New South Wales (NSW). Estimates of the rates at which dependent heroin users cease heroin use, commence methadone treatment or die from opioid overdoses were estimated from external data sources. Results. Back-projection estimates derived from opioid overdose deaths indicated that there were 104 000 (lower limit of 72 000 and upper limit of 157 000) people who were heroin dependent in Australia between 1960 and 1997. Of these it was estimated that 67 000 (39 000-120 000) were still heroin dependent at the end of 1997. Back-projection estimates based on numbers of new entrants to methadone treatment in NSW indicated that there were 108 000 (82 000-141 000) heroin-dependent people in Australia between 1960 and 1997, of whom 71 000 (47 000-109 000) were estimated to be heroin dependent at the end of 1997. Both analyses indicated that the number of heroin-dependent people in Australia has increased substantially from the early 1970s onwards. Conclusions. Back-projection estimates based on analyses of treatment entries and opioid overdose deaths provide an additional method for estimating the numbers of heroin-dependent people in the population. The addition of these methods to existing methods, using different data sources and statistical methods, should improve consensus estimates of the numbers of heroin-dependent people.