Decreased impacts of the 2003 heat waves on mortality in the Czech Republic: an improved response?
Decreased impacts of the 2003 heat waves on mortality in the Czech Republic: an improved response?
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s00484-008-0166-3
复制
发表时间：
2008-11-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Kriz, Bohumir
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kysely, Jan;Kriz, Bohumir
本文研究了2003年热浪对死亡率的影响，这是捷克共和国有记录以来最热的夏天，并将其与以前的类似事件进行了比较。虽然自1986年以来的大多数夏季热浪都与死亡率显着升高有关，但2003年四次热浪中有三次并非如此。对死亡率的反应相对较弱，特别值得注意的是2003年8月前10天发生的最严重的热浪，造成一些西欧国家的死亡率大大增加。死亡率的位移效应和短期适应热有助于减少死亡率的影响，随后在以前的相对温暖的时期热浪。然而，与1990年代的前几次热浪相比，2003年热浪的死亡率下降也可能是由于过去十年中后共产主义中欧地区积极的保健和其他社会经济变化，以及由于媒体报道的加强和定期的生物气象预报和警告，公众对与热有关的风险有了更好的认识。
The paper examines impacts on mortality of heat waves in 2003, the hottest summer on record in the Czech Republic, and compares them with previous similar events. While most summer heat waves over the period since 1986 were associated with significantly elevated mortality, this was not the case for three out of the four heat waves in 2003. The relatively weak mortality response was particularly noteworthy for the most severe heat wave which occurred in the first 10 days of August 2003 and resulted in enormous excess mortality in some western European countries. A mortality displacement effect and short-term adaptation to heat contributed to the reduced mortality impacts of the heat waves that followed after previous relatively warm periods. However, the decreased mortality response of the 2003 heat waves compared to previous heat waves in the 1990s is also likely to have arisen from positive health-care and other socio-economic changes in the post-communist central European region over the past decade, as well as a better public awareness of heat-related risks due to enhanced media coverage and regular biometeorological forecast and warnings.