Revisiting the Effect of Visitation on Recidivism
Revisiting the Effect of Visitation on Recidivism
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重新审视探视对累犯的影响
作者：
Joshua C. Cochran;J. C. Barnes;D. Mears;William D. Bales
摘要 学术研究表明，被探视的监狱囚犯重新犯罪的可能性较小。然而，存在的问题是观察到的关系是否存在因果关系，如果是的话，对于不同的囚犯群体来说，这种关系是否一致。为了解决这些问题，本研究采用两种方法——首先是传统回归分析，其次是工具变量（IV）分析——来检验探视的总体影响，特别是对女性、年轻囚犯和首次入狱人员的影响。两种分析方法的效应大小估计相似，但传统回归分析确定了访问的统计显着效应，而 IV 分析则不然。亚组分析表明男性和女性之间以及年龄之间存在差异。综合起来，这些结果引发了关于探视是否对犯罪产生因果影响的问题。讨论了不同结果对理论、研究和政策的影响以及普遍访问效应的可能性。
Abstract Scholarship suggests that prison inmates who are visited may be less likely to recidivate. Questions exist, however, about whether the observed relationship is causal and, if so, whether it is consistent for different groups of inmates. To address these questions, this study employs two methodological approaches – first, conventional regression analyses and, second, instrumental variable (IV) analyses – to examine the effects of visitation in general and specifically for females, young inmates, and individuals incarcerated for the first time. Effect size estimates are similar across the two analytic approaches, but conventional regression analyses identify a statistically significant effect of visitation, whereas IV analyses do not. Subgroup analyses suggest differences between males and females and by age. Combined, the results raise questions about whether visitation exerts a causal effect on offending. Implications for theory, research, and policy of the divergent results and the potential for a generalized visitation effect are discussed.