Will Adaptation Delay the Transition to Clean Energy Systems? An Analysis with AD-MERGE
Will Adaptation Delay the Transition to Clean Energy Systems? An Analysis with AD-MERGE
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DOI：
10.5547/01956574.40.4.obah
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发表时间：
2019-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Fertel, Camille
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bahn, Olivier;de Bruin, Kelly;Fertel, Camille
在可预见的未来，气候变化是地球面临的最大环境挑战之一。然而，尽管有国际环境协议，全球温室气体排放仍在增加。在这种情况下，适应措施可以在减少气候影响方面发挥重要作用。这些措施包括调整经济或社会结构，以在不限制气候变化本身的情况下限制气候变化的影响。为了评估适应和缓解的相互作用，我们开发了AD-MERGE，这是一个综合评估模型，包括被动（“流量”）和主动（“存量”）适应战略以及一系列缓解（能源）技术。我们发现，采用适应措施最优地延缓了向清洁能源系统（碳捕获和封存系统、核能和可再生能源）的过渡，但并未阻止这种过渡。此外，同时采用适应和减缓比只采用一种更有效。
Climate change is one of the greatest environmental challenges facing our planet in the foreseeable future. yet, despite international environmental agreements, global GHG emissions are still increasing. In this context, adaptation measures can play an important role in reducing climate impacts. These measures involve adjustments to economic or social structures to limit the impact of climate change without limiting climate change itself. To assess the interplay of adaptation and mitigation, we develop AD-MERGE, an integrated assessment model that includes both reactive ('flow') and proactive ('stock') adaptation strategies as well as a range of mitigation (energy) technologies. We find that applying adaptation optimally delays but does not prevent the transition to clean energy systems (carbon capture and sequestration systems, nuclear, and renewables). Moreover, applying both adaptation and mitigation is more effective than using just one.