Extreme wind climatology of winter storms in Germany
Extreme wind climatology of winter storms in Germany
复制标题
德国冬季风暴的极端风气候学
DOI：
10.3354/cr00844
复制
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
M. Kunz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Hofherr;M. Kunz
详细描述了一种评估大规模冬季风暴造成的局部灾害的方法，并将其应用于整个德国。利用ERA- 40再分析资料和观测资料，利用Karlsruhe大气中尺度模式KAMM，采用垂直动力降尺度方法，模拟了1971 ~ 2000年气候期强风暴事件的空间高分辨率风场。风险曲线，包括量化的不确定性，确定所有网格点的距离为1公里的建模风场，通过应用极值统计。灾害地图显示了可能具有极端风速的关键区域，这取决于暴露程度、地形高度和土地使用情况。当重现期为20年，重现概率为0.05年时，最大阵风的范围在深瓦尔的26 m s-1和海岸附近以及低山脉的山顶上的>45 m s-1之间。特别是马鞍、边缘、侧翼和山顶在极端风速下具有更高的危险性。模型资料与实测资料的对比验证了该方法的适用性和较高的精度。
A method for the assessment of the local hazard caused by large-scale winter storms is described in detail and applied to all of Germany. Spatially highly resolved wind fields of severe storm events in the climatological period from 1971 to 2000 are modeled by a statistical—dynamical downscaling approach with the Karlsruhe Atmospheric Mesoscale Model KAMM, using both ERA- 40 re-analysis and observation data. Hazard curves, including quantification of the uncertainties, are determined for all grid points with a distance of 1 km from the modeled wind fields by applying extreme value statistics. The hazard maps reveal critical regions with potentially extreme wind speeds depending on exposure, terrain height and land use. For an exceedance probability of 0.05 yr -1 that equals a return period of 20 yr, the maximum gusts range between 26 m s -1 in deep val- leys and >45 m s -1 near the coast as well as over the crests of the low mountain ranges. Particularly saddles, edges, flanks and summits feature a higher hazard for extreme wind speeds. Comparisons of model data and observations confirm the applicability and the high precision of the method.