A conceptual model for climatic teleconnection signal control on groundwater variability in Europe
A conceptual model for climatic teleconnection signal control on groundwater variability in Europe
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DOI：
10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.09.017
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发表时间：
2018-02
影响因子：
12.1
通讯作者：
W. Rust;I. Holman;R. Corstanje;J. Bloomfield;M. Cuthbert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Rust;I. Holman;R. Corstanje;J. Bloomfield;M. Cuthbert
预测未来地下水资源在时间和空间上的变化的能力对干旱管理至关重要。周期性控制振荡气候系统（如北大西洋振荡）的地下水位提供了一个潜在的长期预测能力的宝贵来源。虽然一些研究在地下水记录中发现了这种气候振荡影响的证据，但关于周期性信号如何在气候系统和地下水资源之间传播的信息很少。本文开发了一个概念模型，这种关系的地下水资源在欧洲，根据目前的研究回顾。这里回顾的研究揭示了气候振荡，降水，地下水补给和地下水排放之间的关键空间和时间信号调制。一般来说，NAO（作为一个主导影响）和降水量之间的正相关关系，在北方欧洲表示一个强大的控制水可用于地下水补给。降水中的这些周期性信号被非饱和区和饱和区转换，使得信号衰减和滞后。这种调制已在不同程度上得到确认，并取决于含水层系统的形状、储存和渗透。这在一定程度上解释了目前研究中许多地下水系统中发现的周期性信号强度差异。为了使水资源管理人员能够利用对这些关系的理解来建立抗旱能力，已经确定了一些研究空白。其中包括改进空间地下水对周期性控制的敏感性的量化，以及更好地识别信号滞后和阻尼的水文地质控制。主要是，研究工作需要转向发展更好的预测能力，以便利用周期性气候波动作为地下水长期变化的指标。
The ability to predict future variability of groundwater resources in time and space is of critical importance to drought management. Periodic control on groundwater levels from oscillatory climatic systems (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation) offers a potentially valuable source of longer term forecasting capability. While some studies have found evidence of the influence of such climatic oscillations within groundwater records, there is little information on how periodic signals propagate between a climatic system and a groundwater resource. This paper develops a conceptual model of this relationship for groundwater resources in Europe, based on a review of current research. The studies reviewed here reveal key spatial and temporal signal modulations between climatic oscillations, precipitation, groundwater recharge and groundwater discharge. Generally positive correlations are found between the NAO (as a dominant influence) and precipitation in northern Europe indicating a strong control on water available for groundwater recharge. These periodic signals in precipitation are transformed by the unsaturated and saturated zones, such that signals are damped and lagged. This modulation has been identified to varying degrees, and is dependent on the shape, storage and transmissivity of an aquifer system. This goes part way towards explaining the differences in periodic signal strength found across many groundwater systems in current research. So that an understanding of these relationships can be used by water managers in building resilience to drought, several research gaps have been identified. Among these are improved quantification of spatial groundwater sensitivity to periodic control, and better identification of the hydrogeological controls on signal lagging and damping. Principally, research needs to move towards developing improved predictive capability for the use of periodic climate oscillations as indicators of longer term groundwater variability.