Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
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DOI：
10.1093/aje/kwv452
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发表时间：
2016-04-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Cummings, Derek A. T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lessler, Justin;Salje, Henrik;Cummings, Derek A. T.
并非所有感染中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒（MERS-CoV）的人都会出现严重症状，这可能导致对感染人数的低估和对严重程度的高估。为了估计沙特阿拉伯王国发生的中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒感染的数量，我们对2012年6月7日至2014年7月25日期间检测到的721例中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒感染的行列表应用了统计模型。我们估计在这段时间内发生了1,528例MERS-CoV感染（95%置信区间（CI）： 1,327, 1,883），是报告数量的2.1倍（95% CI: 1.8, 2.6）。10岁以下患者出现症状的概率为11% (95% CI: 4.25)， 70岁以上患者出现症状的概率为88% （95% CI: 72,97）。估计有22% （95% CI: 18,25）的中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒感染者死亡。中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒是致命的，但这项工作表明，它的临床严重程度在两组之间有显著差异，许多病例可能未被诊断出来。
Not all persons infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) develop severe symptoms, which likely leads to an underestimation of the number of people infected and an overestimation of the severity. To estimate the number of MERS-CoV infections that have occurred in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we applied a statistical model to a line list describing 721 MERS-CoV infections detected between June 7, 2012, and July 25, 2014. We estimated that 1,528 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1,327, 1,883) MERS-CoV infections occurred in this interval, which is 2.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.6) times the number reported. The probability of developing symptoms ranged from 11% (95% CI: 4, 25) in persons under 10 years of age to 88% (95% CI: 72, 97) in those 70 years of age or older. An estimated 22% (95% CI: 18, 25) of those infected with MERS-CoV died. MERS-CoV is deadly, but this work shows that its clinical severity differs markedly between groups and that many cases likely go undiagnosed.