Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere Blocking in CMIP5 Models
Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere Blocking in CMIP5 Models
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-12-00466.1
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发表时间：
2013-09
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
G. Masato;B. Hoskins;T. Woollings
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Masato;B. Hoskins;T. Woollings
本文分析了耦合模式比对计划（CMIP 5）第五阶段12个模式模拟的冬、夏季阻塞频数及其20 ~ 21世纪的变化。代表性浓度路径8.5（RCP 8.5）高排放情景运行用于代表二十一世纪。分析是基于Pelly和霍斯金斯的破波方法。它与Tibaldi和Molteni指数的不同之处在于，它将赤道方向的截止低压和极地阻塞高压视为西风带的中断。一维和二维诊断应用于确定阻塞的中纬度风暴路径，也在较高的纬度。冬季阻塞频率被普遍低估。该模型给出了欧洲阻塞最大值在21世纪世纪减少，与其他研究的结果一致。21世纪世纪的冬天，
AbstractThe frequencies of atmospheric blocking in both winter and summer and the changes in them from the twentieth to the twenty-first centuries as simulated in 12 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed. The representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) high emission scenario runs are used to represent the twenty-first century. The analysis is based on the wave-breaking methodology of Pelly and Hoskins. It differs from the Tibaldi and Molteni index in viewing equatorward cutoff lows and poleward blocking highs in equal manner as indicating a disruption to the westerlies. One-dimensional and two-dimensional diagnostics are applied to identify blocking of the midlatitude storm track and also at higher latitudes. Winter blocking frequency is found to be generally underestimated. The models give a decrease in the European blocking maximum in the twenty-first century, consistent with the results in other studies. There is a mean twenty-first-century winter p...