Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Ethiopia: Evidence from Cross-section Measures
Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Ethiopia: Evidence from Cross-section Measures
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DOI：
10.1093/jae/ejp002
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发表时间：
2009-08-01
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Hassan, Rashid M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Deressa, Temesgen Tadesse;Hassan, Rashid M.
这项研究使用了Ricción的方法，捕捉农民适应不同的环境因素，分析气候变化对埃塞俄比亚作物种植的影响。通过收集该县不同农业生态区农户的数据，对气候、农户和土壤变量进行了回归分析。结果表明，这些变量对埃塞俄比亚条件下农民每公顷作物净收入有显著影响。季节性边际影响分析表明，夏季和冬季温度的小幅升高会显著降低每公顷作物净收入，而春季降水的小幅增加会显著增加每公顷作物净收入。此外，三个模型（CGM2、HaDCM3和PCM）预测的2050年和2100年气候情景对作物净收入的影响表明，到2050年和2100年，每公顷作物净收入将减少。此外，到2100年每公顷净收入的减少将超过到2050年的减少，这表明气候变化造成的损害将随着时间的推移而增加，除非通过适应减轻这种负面影响。此外，结果表明，气候变化的净收入影响并不是均匀分布在埃塞俄比亚不同的农业生态区。
This study used the Ricardian approach that captures farmer adaptations to varying environmental factors to analyze the impact of climate change on crop farming in Ethiopia. By collecting data from farm households in different agro-ecological zones of the county, net crop revenue per hectare was regressed on climate, household and soil variables. The results show that these variables have a significant impact on the net crop revenue per hectare of farmers under Ethiopian conditions. The seasonal marginal impact analysis indicates that marginally increasing temperature during summer and winter would significantly reduce crop net revenue per hectare whereas marginally increasing precipitation during spring would significantly increase net crop revenue per hectare. Moreover, the net crop revenue impact of predicted climate scenarios from three models (CGM2, HaDCM3 and PCM) for the years 2050 and 2100 indicated that there would be a reduction in crop net revenue per hectare by the years 2050 and 2100. Moreover, the reduction in net revenue per hectare by the year 2100 would be more than the reduction by the year 2050 indicating the damage that climate change would pose increases with time unless this negative impact is abated through adaptation. Additionally, results indicate that the net revenue impact of climate change is not uniformly distributed across the different agro-ecological zones of Ethiopia.