Impacts of Climatic Change on River Flow Regimes in the UK
Impacts of Climatic Change on River Flow Regimes in the UK
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气候变化对英国河流流量状况的影响
DOI：
10.1111/j.1747-6593.1992.tb00772.x
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发表时间：
1992
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
N. Arnell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
N. Arnell
近年来，关于温室气体浓度增加带来的潜在威胁，人们写了很多文章。本文概述了全球变暖对总体水文过程的影响，特别是英国的河流水流特征，强调了目前高度的不确定性。英国目前的气候变化情景表明，秋季和春季之间的降雨量将会增加，这可能对英国的水资源产生有益的影响。然而，这种增加的影响可能会被更高的蒸散量所抵消。到下个世纪中叶，英国南部集水区的年平均径流量可能减少约5%，但这一估计非常不确定：径流量可能减少30%，也可能增加30%。英国北部和西部的径流可能会略有增加(但有类似的大可信区间)。英国冬季的河流流量可能会比现在集中得多。特定气候变化情景对月径流的影响取决于当前夏季水量平衡和集水区地质条件。
Much has been written in recent years about the potential threats posed by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This paper summarizes the implications of global warming for hydrological processes in general and river flow characteristics in the UK in particular, emphasizing the present high degree of uncertainty. Current climate change scenarios for the UK imply that rainfall between autumn and spring will increase, and this may have beneficial implications for UK water resources. However, the effect of this increase may be outweighed by higher evapotranspiration. Average annual runoff in a catchment in southern UK may be reduced by around 5% by the middle of the next century, but this estimate is very uncertain: runoff may reduce by 30% or increase by 30%. Runoff in northern and western UK is likely to show a slight increase (but with similarly large confidence intervals). It is probable that river flows in the UK will be much more concentrated in winter than at present. The effect of a given climate change scenario on monthly flow regimes depends on the current summer water balance and on catchment geological conditions.