Cheaper solar, cleaner grid?
Cheaper solar, cleaner grid?
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更便宜的太阳能、更清洁的电网？
DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107095
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Wen Lin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Haoyang Li;Wen Lin
尽管风电装机成本预计在不久的将来不会出现大幅变化，但太阳能装机成本预计将在大约 30 年内下降 45%。使用分析模型和动态结构模拟模型，我们表明，在预计的太阳能成本下降的情况下，风能容量投资先增加后减少。结果表明，当太阳能成本从880美元/kW下降到700美元/kW时，由于风能投资的下降，CO 2 排放量增加了12.9%，这表明更便宜的太阳能成本并不一定意味着在没有任何碳政策干预的情况下电网更加清洁。然而，如果监管机构要求可再生能源渗透率至少为 36%，那么当太阳能成本达到 700 美元/千瓦时，可再生能源投资带来的社会福利将增加 7.4 亿美元/年。这项研究说明了如果碳税在政治上不可行的话，在未来太阳能发电成本下降的情况下，可再生能源投资组合标准等政策的重要性。
Although wind capacity cost is not expected to experience large changes in the near future, solar capacity cost is projected to drop by 45% in roughly thirty years. Using an analytical model and a dynamic structural simulation model, we show that wind energy capacity investment first increases but then decreases under the projected solar cost decline. Results indicate that when solar cost drops from $880/kW to $700/kW, CO 2 emissions increase by 12.9% due to the decline in wind energy investment, indicating that cheaper solar cost does not necessarily imply a cleaner grid without any carbon policy intervention. However, if the regulator requires a minimum of 36% renewable penetration rate, social welfare from renewable investment when solar cost arrives at $700/kW would increase by $0.74 billion/year. This study illustrates the importance of policies such as the renewable portfolio standards under future decline in solar capacity cost if a carbon tax is politically infeasible.