Consequences of war: Japan’s demographic transition and the marriage market
Consequences of war: Japan’s demographic transition and the marriage market
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战争的后果：日本的人口转变和婚姻市场
DOI：
10.1007/s00148-021-00826-5
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Komura Mizuki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ogasawara Kota;Komura Mizuki
本研究探讨了性别比例失衡对儿童数量和质量的影响，重点是家庭内部谈判能力的变化。我们首先提出了一个理论模型的家庭内部的谈判中存在的冲突的家庭目标在一对夫妇，并表明，男性稀缺（减少男女性别比）引起的儿童数量的增加和儿童质量的下降。第二，将第二次世界大战对性别比的影响作为准自然实验，实证地证明了第二次世界大战期间男女性别比的下降，对战后日本的生育率和儿童死亡率的下降幅度较小的贡献。特别是，如果没有性别比例的下降，1948年至1970年期间的生育率将再下降12%，儿童死亡率将再下降13%。
This study explores the effects of imbalances in the sex ratio on both the quantity and the quality of children, with a focus on changes in intra-household bargaining power. We first present a theoretical model of intra-household bargaining in the presence of conflicting family goals within a couple, and show that male scarcity (a decrease in the male-to-female sex ratio) induces an increase in the number of children and a decrease in the quality of children. Second, using the impact of World War II on the sex ratio as a quasi-natural experiment, we establish empirically that the decrease in the male-to-female sex ratio in World War II contributed to a smaller decline in fertility and child mortality rates in postwar Japan. In particular, the fertility rate would have fallen by an additional 12% and the child mortality rate by an additional 13% between 1948 and 1970 absent the decrease in the sex ratio.