Reappearing Dividends
Reappearing Dividends
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.585703
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发表时间：
2004-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Brandon Julio;D. Ikenberry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Brandon Julio;D. Ikenberry
在20世纪的最后20年里，美国公司支付现金股利的倾向显著下降。由于股票回购的急剧增加，在20世纪90年代末，远离股息的趋势加速了，这使得一些作者得出结论，股息政策正在以一种非常根本的方式发生转变。这一趋势从2000年开始急剧逆转。我们调查了股息重新出现的五个可能原因。考虑到20世纪90年代新公司的爆炸式增长，我们发现这种反弹的一部分可以用“成熟度假设”来解释。一个仅依赖于期限因素的简单模型也预测了近期股息支付的转变。此外，我们还发现，在投资者对公司治理的担忧之后，一些公司可能选择使用股息作为“信心”的信号。最后，正如人们所预料的那样，企业对布什削减股息税做出了反应，但这个故事并不完整，因为股息的反弹早在税制改革发生之前就开始了。我们没有发现太多证据支持这样一种观点，即最近的反弹仅仅是由于管理公司迎合了投资者的异想天开，也不是由于优质投资项目的可用性减少。人们不愿过多解读这种反弹，但我们的证据与企业派息政策似乎正在转向传统现金派息的观点是一致的。
During the last two decades of the 20th century, the propensity of U.S. firms to pay cash dividends declined significantly. Exacerbated by a sharp increase in stock repurchases, the trend away from dividends accelerated during the late 1990s leading some authors to conclude that dividend policy was shifting in a very fundamental way. This trend makes a sharp reversal starting in 2000. We investigate five possible reasons for why dividends are reappearing. Given the explosion in new firms during the 1990s, we find that a portion of this rebound is explained by the "maturity hypothesis." A simple model that relies only on maturity factors also forecasts a recent turn in dividend payout. Further, we also find that some firms may have chosen to use dividends as a signal of "confidence" in the wake of investor concerns over corporate governance. Finally, firms have responded to the Bush dividend tax cut as one might expect, yet this story is not complete as the rebound in the dividends starts well before tax reform occurred. We do not find much support for the idea that the recent rebound is due simply to managers catering to the whims of investors, nor to a decrease in the availability of good investment projects. One hesitates to read too much into this rebound, yet our evidence is consistent with the idea that corporate payout policy appears to be shifting back in favor of conventional cash dividends.