Seamless Projections of Global Storm Surge and Ocean Waves Under a Warming Climate
Seamless Projections of Global Storm Surge and Ocean Waves Under a Warming Climate
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气候变暖下全球风暴潮和海浪的无缝预测
DOI：
10.1029/2021gl097427
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Yoshida K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shimura T.;Pringle W. J.;Mori N.;Miyashita T.;Yoshida K.
为了沿海地区的适应目的，除了估计平均海平面上升之外，还必须估计风暴潮和海浪造成的极端海平面的气候变化。这项研究基于一个极高分辨率的全球气候模式，首次对全球风暴潮和海浪从过去到未来变暖的预测变化进行了一致和连续的估计。年最大海面高度和波高趋势的空间格局主要由热带气旋（TC）频率的变化驱动。在北太平洋西部，预计未来TC频率将下降，年最大海面高度和波高呈下降趋势（-20厘米/世纪和-200厘米/世纪）。虽然高度强烈的热带气旋在温暖的气候中增强，但由于自然变率大，极端风暴潮和波高不一定增加。
For coastal adaptation purposes, it is important to estimate the climate related changes in extreme sea levels due to storm surges and ocean waves, in addition to mean sea level rise. This study provides the first consistent and continuous estimation of projected changes in global storm surges and ocean waves from the past to the warmer future, based on an extremely high resolution global climate model. The spatial pattern in the trend of annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights is predominantly driven by changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency. In the western North Pacific, future TC frequencies are projected to decrease, and the annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights show decreasing trends (−20 cm/century and −200 cm/century). Although highly intense tropical cyclones are enhanced in the warmer climate, highly extreme storm surges and wave heights do not necessarily increase due to the large natural variability.