A new model for the prediction of Dst on the basis of the solar wind -: art. no. 1472
A new model for the prediction of Dst on the basis of the solar wind -: art. no. 1472
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DOI：
10.1029/2001ja007532
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发表时间：
2002-12-24
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Li, XL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Temerin, M;Li, XL
[1]一个显式模型预测Dst基于太阳风数据年19951999给出了一个符合预测效率为88%,线性相关系数0.94,Dst指数和模型之间的均方根误差为6.4元。相同的模型应用于2000年上半年做了一个预测效率为91%,线性相关系数为0.95,均方根误差为7.9元,Dst建模是一个三项之和与衰亡,动态压力项,一个行星际磁场项，和一些偏移项。主要的创新是衰变项有不同的时间常数，从5天到1小时不等，除了偏移量之外，所有的项都取决于地球偶极子相对于太阳风速度的角度。这一结果表明，磁层是高度可预测的，并且磁层内的混沌行为对决定Dst的大尺度电流影响很小。
[1] An explicit model for predicting Dst based on solar wind data for the years 19951999 gives a good fit with a prediction efficiency of 88%, a linear correlation coefficient between the Dst index and the model of 0.94, and a RMS error of 6.4 nT. The same model applied to the first half of 2000 gave a prediction efficiency of 91%, a linear correlation coefficient of 0.95, and a RMS error of 7.9 nT. The modeled Dst is a sum of three terms that have growth and decay, a dynamic pressure term, an interplanetary magnetic field term, and some offset terms. The main innovations are that the decay terms have different time constants ranging from 5 days to 1 hour and that all the terms except the offsets depend on the angle of the Earth's dipole with respect to the solar wind velocity. This result shows that the magnetosphere is highly predictable and that chaotic behavior within the magnetosphere has little influence on the large-scale currents that determine Dst.