The Marshall Plan and the Spanish Postwar Economy: A Welfare Loss Analysis
The Marshall Plan and the Spanish Postwar Economy: A Welfare Loss Analysis
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马歇尔计划和西班牙战后经济：福利损失分析
DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-0289.2010.00576.x
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Carrasco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Carrasco
本文以国际贸易理论为基础，将历史事实作为衡量一国从允许贸易状态转变为限制贸易状态的福利损失的自然实验。福利损失相当于GDP的8%。1940-1958年间西班牙国内进出口价格的演变符合国际贸易理论的假设。自给自足的主要年份不是人们通常认为的那些年份，而是1947-55年，标志着西班牙被排除在马歇尔计划和佛朗哥政权与美国之间的马德里条约之外。1947-55年的福利损失上限为GDP的26%。
This article uses historical fact as a natural experiment to measure a country's welfare loss from shifting from an allowed to a restricted trade situation, based on international trade theory. A welfare loss of 8 per cent of GDP is found. The evolution of domestic import and export prices in Spain in 1940–58 fits international trade theory assumptions. The main years of autarky are not those commonly considered, but 1947–55, marked by the exclusion of Spain from the Marshall Plan and the Madrid Treaty between Franco's regime and the US. The upper‐bound welfare loss for 1947–55 is 26 per cent of GDP.