Civil-military Pathologies and Defeat in War: Tests Using New Data
Civil-military Pathologies and Defeat in War: Tests Using New Data
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军民病态和战争失败：使用新数据进行测试
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Caitlin Talmadge
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
V. Narang;Caitlin Talmadge
本文使用一个原始数据集，即战时军民关系数据集，来检验关于战争胜负原因的论点。我们的分析提供了强有力的初步支持，即军民关系有力地塑造了国家的胜负前景。具体地说，即使我们考虑了其他重要变量的作用，包括政权类型和物质能力在内的其他重要变量的作用，其军队在国内发挥重要作用或其政权参与防政变的国家赢得国家间战争的可能性似乎要低得多。至关重要的是，我们对军民关系的衡量包括政变发生率，但也超越了政变，发现了更微妙的军民关系指标。由此产生的分析应该会让我们有信心承认非物质变量在解释战争结果方面的重要性，同时也为能够利用和扩展数据集的进一步研究铺平道路。
This article uses an original data set, the Wartime Civil-military Relations Data Set, to test arguments about the causes of victory and defeat in war. Our analysis provides strong initial support for the notion that civil-military relations powerfully shape state prospects for victory and defeat. Specifically, states whose militaries have a significant internal role or whose regimes engage in coup-proofing appear to have a substantially lower probability of winning interstate wars, even when we account for the role of other important variables, including regime type and material capabilities. Crucially, our measures of civil-military relations include coup incidence but also move beyond it to detect more subtle indicators of civil-military relations. The resulting analysis should give us confidence in acknowledging the importance of nonmaterial variables in explaining war outcomes, while also paving the way for further research that can utilize and extend the data set.