Calculation of prevalence estimates through differential equations: Application to stroke-related disability
Calculation of prevalence estimates through differential equations: Application to stroke-related disability
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DOI：
10.1159/000140096
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发表时间：
2008-01-01
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Moler-Cuiral, Jose Antonio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mar, Javier;Sainz-Ezkerra, Maria;Moler-Cuiral, Jose Antonio
背景：神经系统疾病现在占全球疾病负担的6.3%，主要是因为它们导致残疾。为了评估残疾，需要对患病率进行估计。这项研究的目的是应用一种基于微分方程的方法来计算中风相关残疾的患病率。方法：以流程图为基础，建立各年龄段的微分方程式。对线性方程组进行了解析和数值求解。系统的参数是从文献中获得的。通过与已有结果的比较，对模型进行了验证和标定。结果：每10万名男性卒中患病率为828人，卒中相关残障率为331人。随着年龄的增长，这一比例稳步上升，但65岁至74岁之间的人群总人数最多。讨论：微分方程式有助于描述神经系统疾病的自然历史，并使计算不同残疾状态的患病率成为可能。在我们的经验中，与马尔可夫模型得到的结果相比，持续使用时间的好处超过了我们模型的数学要求。版权所有(C)2008 S.Karger AG，巴塞尔。
Background: Neurological diseases now make up 6.3% of the global burden of disease mainly because they cause disability. To assess disability, prevalence estimates are needed. The objective of this study is to apply a method based on differential equations to calculate the prevalence of stroke-related disability. Methods: On the basis of a flow diagram, a set of differential equations for each age group was constructed. The linear system was solved analytically and numerically. The parameters of the system were obtained from the literature. The model was validated and calibrated by comparison with previous results. Results: The stroke prevalence rate per 100,000 men was 828, and the rate for stroke-related disability was 331. The rates steadily rose with age, but the group between the ages of 65 and 74 years had the highest total number of individuals. Discussion: Differential equations are useful to represent the natural history of neurological diseases and to make possible the calculation of the prevalence for the various states of disability. In our experience, when compared with the results obtained by Markov models, the benefit of the continuous use of time outweighs the mathematical requirements of our model. Copyright (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.