Cancer mortality in the elderly in 11 countries worldwide, 1970-2015
Cancer mortality in the elderly in 11 countries worldwide, 1970-2015
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DOI：
10.1093/annonc/mdz178
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发表时间：
2019-08-01
影响因子：
50.5
通讯作者：
La Vecchia, C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carioli, G.;Malvezzi, M.;La Vecchia, C.
背景：人口老龄化导致老年人癌症负担增加。我们的目的是评估1970- 2015年期间全球11个国家65岁及以上成年人17种主要癌症类型和所有癌症合并的癌症死亡率的时间趋势。材料和方法：我们从WHO和PAHO数据库获得癌症死亡证明和人口数据。我们计算了年龄标准化（世界标准人口）率为65岁及以上的个人，并应用joinpoint回归models.Results：所有癌症的标准化死亡率相结合的异质性，但广泛的下降。男性肺癌死亡率一直在下降，而女性肺癌死亡率则在上升。在所有国家，胰腺癌对男女都有不利趋势。尽管各国之间存在差异，但除波兰和俄罗斯外，其他与烟草有关的癌症（肾脏除外）总体上呈现出有利的趋势。在所有国家，男女的胃癌标准化死亡率一直在下降。除波兰和俄罗斯外，结直肠死亡率一直在下降。肝癌死亡率在所有国家都有所增加，但日本、法国和意大利除外，这些国家过去的死亡率最高。除日本、波兰和俄罗斯外，大多数国家的乳腺癌死亡率都有所下降。在过去十年中，美国、加拿大和英国的年龄标准化子宫癌发病率呈上升趋势。大多数国家的卵巢癌发病率都有所下降。除俄罗斯外，前列腺癌发病率总体呈下降趋势。除了在波兰和Russian.Conclusion：在过去的几十年中，年龄标准化的癌症死亡率在老年人一直在下降，在世界主要国家和主要的癌症部位，主要例外的肺癌和子宫癌的妇女和肝癌，胰腺癌和肾癌的男女。中欧和东欧老年人的癌症死亡率仍然相对较高。
Background: Population ageing results in an increasing cancer burden in the elderly. We aimed to evaluate time-trends in cancer mortality for adults aged 65 and over for 17 major cancer types and all cancers combined in 11 countries worldwide over the period 1970-2015.Materials and methods: We obtained cancer death certification and population figures from the WHO and PAHO databases. We computed age-standardised (world standard population) rates for individuals aged 65 and over, and applied joinpoint regression models.Results: Age-standardised mortality rates for all cancers combined showed a heterogeneous, but widespread decline. Lung cancer mortality rates have been decreasing among men, and increasing among women. Pancreatic cancer had unfavourable trends in all countries for both sexes. Despite variability across countries, other tobacco-related cancers (except kidney) showed overall favourable trends, except in Poland and Russia. Age-standardised mortality rates from stomach cancer have been declining in all countries for both sexes. Colorectal mortality has been declining, except in Poland and Russia. Liver cancer mortality increased in all countries, except in Japan, France and Italy, which had the highest rates in the past. Breast cancer mortality decreased for most countries, except for Japan, Poland and Russia. Trends for age-standardised uterine cancer rates in the USA, Canada and the UK were increasing over the last decade. Ovarian cancer rates showed declines in most countries. With the exception of Russia, prostate cancer rates showed overall declines. Lymphoid neoplasms rates have been declining in both sexes, except in Poland and Russia.Conclusion: Over the last decades, age-standardised cancer mortality in the elderly has been decreasing in major countries worldwide and for major cancer sites, with the major exception of lung and uterine cancer in women and liver, pancreatic and kidney cancers in both sexes. Cancer mortality for the elderly in central and eastern Europe remains comparatively high.