Modeling slash pine mortality rates incorporating responses to silvicultural treatments and fusiform rust infection rates
Modeling slash pine mortality rates incorporating responses to silvicultural treatments and fusiform rust infection rates
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结合对造林处理的反应和梭状锈病感染率对湿地松死亡率进行建模
DOI：
10.1016/j.foreco.2023.120832
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Bullock, Bronson P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ramirez, Laura;Montes, Cristian R.;Bullock, Bronson P.
在任何年龄的林分存活率的评价是一项重要的任务，使林务员能够估计林分动态，并最终，林分的价值。因此，任何增长和产量系统开发的目的是预测或预测的立场价值需要精确估计的树木存活在任何时间点的数量。当通过对死亡率建模来描述生存率时，使用身高增量而不是时间增量的微分方程已被证明可以提高生存率模型的整体拟合度。利用湿地松人工林（Pinus elliottiiEngelm.）其中造林处理（即，垫料和完全植被控制），并在建立阶段，梭状锈病（Cronartium quercuumBerk.）记录感染率，构建这种性质的存活/死亡率模型。身高增量取自包含明确治疗效应的拟定优势身高模型。此外，增加了5年生梭形锈病感染树木的比例，作为描述死亡率的预测因子。我们的研究结果表明，林分生存更好地描述了一个模型，其中使用的时间增量，而不是高度增量，虽然造林治疗是必不可少的建模优势高度，死亡率并没有很大的影响，这些治疗，因此，没有额外的参数修改器与这些治疗是必要的。另一方面，包括平均梭形锈病感染是必不可少的，以描述在这些立场的死亡率，较高的感染率与较高的死亡率。
The evaluation of stand survival at any age is an essential task that allows foresters to estimate stand dynamics and ultimately, the value of a forest stand. Therefore, any growth and yield system developed with the aim of predicting or projecting standing value requires precise estimates of the number of trees surviving at any point in time. When describing survival through modeling the mortality rate, differential equations using height increments rather than time increments have been shown to improve the overall fit of survival models. Using a long-term data set of slash pine plantations (Pinus elliottiiEngelm.) in which silvicultural treatments (i.e., bedding and complete vegetation control) were applied during the establishment phase, and fusiform rust (Cronartium quercuumBerk.) infection rates were recorded, a survival/mortality model of this nature was constructed. Height increments were taken from a proposed dominant height model that included explicit treatment effects. In addition, the proportion of trees infected with fusiform rust at an age of 5 years was added as a predictor describing the mortality rate. Our results show that stand survival is better described by a model in which time increments are used rather than height increments, and although silvicultural treatments were essential for modeling dominant height, mortality was not greatly affected by these treatments and therefore, no additional parameter modifiers associated to these treatments were needed. On the other hand, the inclusion of average fusiform rust infections was essential to describe mortality rates in these stands, with higher infection rates associated to higher mortality rates.