Evaluating the effect of demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, and risk aversion on mobility during the COVID-19 epidemic in France under lockdown: a population-based study.
Evaluating the effect of demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, and risk aversion on mobility during the COVID-19 epidemic in France under lockdown: a population-based study.
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DOI：
10.1016/s2589-7500(20)30243-0
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发表时间：
2020-12
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Colizza V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Pullano G;Valdano E;Scarpa N;Rubrichi S;Colizza V
2020年3月17日，法国当局在全国范围内实施封锁，以应对COVID-19疫情，并遏制需要重症监护的患者激增。评估封锁对个人流离失所的影响对于量化可实现的流动性减少和确定影响病毒传播的社会动态变化的驱动因素至关重要。我们的目标是使用移动的电话数据来研究法国在封锁之前和封锁期间的移动性如何变化，将我们的研究结果按行程距离，用户年龄和居住地以及一天中的时间进行分解，并分析区域数据和空间异质性。在这项基于人口的研究中，我们使用了从移动的手机轨迹重建的法国大陆1436个行政区域之间的时间分辨旅行流。数据按年龄组分层（18岁以下、18-64岁和65岁或以上）。我们区分了居民和非居民，并使用了法国国家统计局的人口数据和区域社会经济指标。我们使用案例交叉框架在地方和国家范围内测量了封锁之前和封锁期间的流动性变化。我们分析了所有旅行组合和超过100公里的旅行（称为长途旅行），并按白天或夜间，工作日或周末以及高峰时间分开旅行。封锁使全国流离失所人数减少了65%（从每天约5700万人次减少到约2000万人次），在减少与工作有关的短程流动性方面特别有效，特别是在高峰时间和长途旅行。地理上的不均匀性显示，即使在封锁宣布之前，远距离运动也出现了异常增加，这些运动在太空中非常有限。在封锁期间，流动性下降在各地区分布不均匀（例如，巴黎地区的法兰西岛，从每天585 000人次下降到117 000人次）。 它们与活跃人口、受封锁影响较大的部门的工人以及每个地区的住院人数密切相关，与各地区的社会经济水平中度相关。主要城市大幅缩小了连通模式，主要减少为短程通勤（封锁前，离开巴黎的95%的交通被控制在201公里半径内，封锁期间该半径减少至29公里）。封锁有效地减少了人口的跨规模流动。在政策宣布和执行的时机上应谨慎行事，因为政策宣布之后会出现异常流动，这可能是引发事件。相反，规避风险可能有利于进一步减少受影响严重地区的流动性。我们还确定了限制有效性的社会经济和人口限制。地理、人口统计学和对行动限制的反应时间之间的联系可能有助于设计干预措施，使入侵性最小化，同时有助于当前的流行病应对。Agence Nationale de la Recherche，EU，REACTing.
On March 17, 2020, French authorities implemented a nationwide lockdown to respond to the COVID-19 epidemic and curb the surge of patients requiring critical care. Assessing the effect of lockdown on individual displacements is essential to quantify achievable mobility reductions and identify the factors driving the changes in social dynamics that affected viral diffusion. We aimed to use mobile phone data to study how mobility in France changed before and during lockdown, breaking down our findings by trip distance, user age and residency, and time of day, and analysing regional data and spatial heterogeneities. For this population-based study, we used temporally resolved travel flows among 1436 administrative areas of mainland France reconstructed from mobile phone trajectories. Data were stratified by age class (younger than 18 years, 18–64 years, and 65 years or older). We distinguished between residents and non-residents and used population data and regional socioeconomic indicators from the French National Statistical Institute. We measured mobility changes before and during lockdown at both local and country scales using a case-crossover framework. We analysed all trips combined and trips longer than 100 km (termed long trips), and separated trips by daytime or night-time, weekdays or weekends, and rush hours. Lockdown caused a 65% reduction in the countrywide number of displacements (from about 57 million to about 20 million trips per day) and was particularly effective in reducing work-related short-range mobility, especially during rush hour, and long trips. Geographical heterogeneities showed anomalous increases in long-range movements even before lockdown announcement that were tightly localised in space. During lockdown, mobility drops were unevenly distributed across regions (eg, Île-de-France, the region of Paris, went from 585 000 to 117 000 outgoing trips per day). They were strongly associated with active populations, workers employed in sectors highly affected by lockdown, and number of hospitalisations per region, and moderately associated with the socioeconomic level of the regions. Major cities largely shrank their pattern of connectivity, reducing it mainly to short-range commuting (95% of traffic leaving Paris was contained in a 201 km radius before lockdown, which was reduced to 29 km during lockdown). Lockdown was effective in reducing population mobility across scales. Caution should be taken in the timing of policy announcements and implementation, because anomalous mobility followed policy announcements, which might act as seeding events. Conversely, risk aversion might be beneficial in further decreasing mobility in highly affected regions. We also identified socioeconomic and demographic constraints to the efficacy of restrictions. The unveiled links between geography, demography, and timing of the response to mobility restrictions might help to design interventions that minimise invasiveness while contributing to the current epidemic response. Agence Nationale de la Recherche, EU, REACTing.