On a mechanical approach to the prediction of earthquakes during horizontal motion of lithospheric plates
On a mechanical approach to the prediction of earthquakes during horizontal motion of lithospheric plates
复制标题
岩石圈板块水平运动过程中地震预测的力学方法
作者：
V. Babeshko;O. V. Evdokimova;O. M. Babeshko
采用块体单元法研究了半无限岩石圈板块与可变形基底沿着Conrad边界相互作用的静态边值问题。假定岩石圈板块具有相互平行的直线边界，并在两个位置上考虑。在第一种情况下，板的端部之间的距离不会消失，而在第二种情况下，虽然板不相互作用，但距离不存在。假定作用在板上的水平力非常大，可以忽略接触应力的垂直分量。只有位移应力留在接触区。本文讨论了数值模拟和块体单元方法来研究这个问题的比较。在第一种情况下，接触应力集中的岩石圈板块的接触区的外观被发现，而在第二种情况下的应力集中原来是奇异的，并导致岩石圈板块的底部或边缘的破坏。在第二种情况下，它是可能的，以确定在接触应力集中的奇异性系数的大小的问题的各种参数的影响。数值方法不具备这种能力。所获得的结果允许人们预测的基础上监测的岩石圈板块的水平运动的启动地震。
The block element method is used to study a static boundary value problem for semi-infinite lithospheric plates interacting with a deformable basement along Conrad boundary. It is assumed that the lithospheric plates have straight line boundaries parallel to each other and are considered in two positions. In the first case, the distance between the ends of the plates does not vanish, whereas in the second case the distance is absent, although the plates do not interact. It is assumed that horizontal action on the plates, which are known to move extremely slowly, is so strong that vertical components of contact stresses can be neglected. Only shift stresses remain in the contact zone. The paper addresses the comparison of numerical simulation and block element approach to investigate this problem. In the first case, appearance of a concentration of contact stresses in the zone of contact of lithospheric plates is found, while in the second case the stress concentration turns out to be singular and leads to destruction of the base or edges of the lithospheric plates. In the second case, it is possible to determine the influence of various parameters of the problem on the magnitude of the coefficients for singularities in the contact stress concentrations. The numerical method does not have this capability. The obtained result allows one to predict the starting earthquakes based on monitoring of horizontal motions of the lithospheric plates.