Decision-making for mitigating wildlife diseases: From theory to practice for an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians
Decision-making for mitigating wildlife diseases: From theory to practice for an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/1365-2664.13089
复制
发表时间：
2018-07-01
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Schmidt, Benedikt R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Canessa, Stefano;Bozzuto, Claudio;Schmidt, Benedikt R.
1.在寻求与直接管理相关的明确表述的问题的答案时，保护科学可以最有效地发挥其决策支持作用。新出现的野生动物疾病是全球生物多样性丧失的一个驱动力，它说明了发挥这一作用的挑战：尽管进行了大量研究，但成功缓解疾病的情况并不常见。决策分析越来越被提倡用来指导缓解规划，但它的应用仍然很少。使用积分预测模型，我们探索了潜在的缓解行动，以避免种群下降和持续的空间传播。这种真菌最近在欧洲西北部造成了两栖动物数量的严重下降，目前威胁到了古北区火蜥蜴的多样性。现有证据表明，在火蜥蜴(Salamandra Salamandra)种群中暴发将导致其迅速灭绝。抗真菌药物或益生菌等治疗方法需要有效地阻断传播(将感染概率降低近90%)，以降低根除宿主的风险并成功根除病原体。提高受感染宿主的存活率最有可能是有害的，因为它增加了病原体传播和传播的可能性。主动清除很大比例的寄主种群有可能在当地根除BSAL并中断其传播，这取决于BSAL水库的存在和寄主的空间动态，因此这应该是研究的优先事项。合成与应用。减轻易感宿主物种中的火龙杆菌流行具有极大的挑战性，需要有效阻断传播和彻底清除宿主个体。更广泛地说，我们的研究说明了在管理决策环境中直接构建保护科学的优势，而不是事后适应它。
1. Conservation science can be most effective in its decision-support role when seeking answers to clearly formulated questions of direct management relevance. Emerging wildlife diseases, a driver of global biodiversity loss, illustrate the challenges of performing this role: in spite of considerable research, successful disease mitigation is uncommon. Decision analysis is increasingly advocated to guide mitigation planning, but its application remains rare.2. Using an integral projection model, we explored potential mitigation actions for avoiding population declines and the ongoing spatial spread of the fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). This fungus has recently caused severe amphibian declines in north-western Europe and currently threatens Palearctic salamander diversity.3. Available evidence suggests that a Bsal outbreak in a fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) population will lead to its rapid extirpation. Treatments such as anti-fungals or probiotics would need to effectively interrupt transmission (reduce probability of infection by nearly 90%) in order to reduce the risk of host extirpation and successfully eradicate the pathogen.4. Improving the survival of infected hosts is most likely to be detrimental as it increases the potential for pathogen transmission and spread. Active removal of a large proportion of the host population has some potential to locally eradicate Bsal and interrupt its spread, depending on the presence of Bsal reservoirs and on the host's spatial dynamics, which should therefore represent research priorities.5. Synthesis and applications. Mitigation of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans epidemics in susceptible host species is highly challenging, requiring effective interruption of transmission and radical removal of host individuals. More generally, our study illustrates the advantages of framing conservation science directly in the management decision context, rather than adapting to it a posteriori.