HIP-FRACTURES IN THE ELDERLY - A WORLDWIDE PROJECTION
HIP-FRACTURES IN THE ELDERLY - A WORLDWIDE PROJECTION
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DOI：
10.1007/bf01623184
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发表时间：
1992-11-01
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
MELTON, LJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
COOPER, C;CAMPION, G;MELTON, LJ
髋骨骨折在许多西方国家被认为是一个主要的公共卫生问题，尤其是在北美，欧洲和大洋洲。世界其他地区髋部骨折的发病率通常低于这些主要为白人的人群，这导致人们认为骨质疏松症对亚洲、南美和非洲国家来说不是一个问题。然而，今后60年的人口变化将导致这些国家的老年人口大幅增加。我们将世界各地现有的髋部骨折发病率应用于1990年、2025年和2050年的预测人口，以估计每个主要大陆地区可能发生的髋部骨折数量。预测表明，到2050年，全世界每年发生髋部骨折的人数将从1990年的166万人增加到626万人。虽然欧洲和北美目前约占老年人髋部骨折的一半，但这一比例将在2050年降至四分之一左右，届时整个亚洲和拉丁美洲将出现急剧增加。结果表明，骨质疏松症将真正成为一个全球性的问题，在未来的世纪，预防策略将需要在世界上的一些地区，他们目前认为是必要的。
Hip fractures are recognized to be a major public health problem in many Western nations, most notably those in North America, Europe and Oceania. Incidence rates for hip fracture in other parts of the world are generally lower than those reported for these predominantly Caucasian populations, and this has led to the belief that osteoporosis represents less of a problem to the nations of Asia, South American and Africa. Demographic changes in the next 60 years, however, will lead to huge increases in the elderly populations of those countries. We have applied available incidence rates for hip fracture from various parts of the world to projected populations in 1990, 2025 and 2050 in order to estimate the numbers of hip fractures which might occur in each of the major continental regions. The projections indicate that the number of hip fractures occurring in the world each year will rise from 1.66 million in 1990 to 6.26 million by 2050. While Europe and North America account for about half of all hip fractures among elderly people today, this proportion will fall to around one quarter in 2050, by which time steep increases will be observed throughout Asia and Latin America. The results suggest that osteoporosis will truly become a global problem over the next half century, and that preventive strategies will be required in parts of the world where they are not currently felt to be necessary.