Impact of Climate Change on Vegetation Distribution and Net Primary Productivity of Forests of Himalayan River Basins: Brahmaputra, Koshi and Indus
Impact of Climate Change on Vegetation Distribution and Net Primary Productivity of Forests of Himalayan River Basins: Brahmaputra, Koshi and Indus
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DOI：
10.4236/ajcc.2018.72018
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发表时间：
2018-06
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通讯作者：
A. Chaitra;S. Upgupta;L. Bhatta;J. Mathangi;D. Anitha;K. Sindhu;Vidya P Kumar;N. Agrawal;M. Murthy;F. Qamar;I. Murthy;J. Sharma;R. Chaturvedi;G. Bala;N. Ravindranath
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作者：
A. Chaitra;S. Upgupta;L. Bhatta;J. Mathangi;D. Anitha;K. Sindhu;Vidya P Kumar;N. Agrawal;M. Murthy;F. Qamar;I. Murthy;J. Sharma;R. Chaturvedi;G. Bala;N. Ravindranath
在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景下，评估了气候变化在森林植被变化和净初级生产力 (NPP) 变化方面对雅鲁藏布江、科西河和印度河流域中期（2021-2050 年）和长期（2071-2100 年）的影响。为此目的，使用了两个动态全球植被模型 (DGVM)：综合生物圈模拟器 (IBIS) 和（隆德波斯特丹和耶拿 (LPJ)）。DGVM 由 5 个气候模型的集合平均气候预测驱动，这些模型为 CMIP5 数据库做出了贡献。虽然这两个 DGVM 都预测流域森林区域的植被变化，但 IBIS 和 LPJ 预测的植被变化存在很大差异。这可能是由于两个模型定义和模拟的植被类型（植物功能类型）数量不同所致。然而，IBIS 和 LPJ 预测的 NPP 变化存在一定的一致性，其中 IBIS 大多预测未来情景中 NPP 会出现较大增长，尽管流域层面的气候变化预测存在不确定性，而且不同 DGVM 的影响评估也存在差异，但有必要评估该模型的“脆弱性”。可以对 IBIS 和 LPJ 项目植被发生变化的所有森林网格进行“脆弱性”评估和适应策略设计。
The impacts of climate change in terms of forest vegetation shifts and Net Primary Productivity (NPP) changes are assessed for Brahmaputra, Koshi and Indus river basins for the mid (2021-2050) and long (2071-2100) terms for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Two Dynamical Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) and (Lund Postdam and Jena (LPJ), have been used for this purpose. The DGVMs are driven by the ensemble mean climate projections from 5 climate models that contributed to the CMIP5 data base. While both DGVMs project vegetation shifts in the forest areas of the basins, there are large differences in vegetation shifts projected by IBIS and LPJ. This may be attributed to differing representation of land surface processes and to differences in the number of vegetation types (Plant Functional Types) defined and simulated in the two models. However, there is some agreement in NPP changes as projected by both IBIS and LPJ, with IBIS mostly projecting a larger increase in NPP for the future scenarios. Despite the uncertainties with respect to climate change projections at river basin level and the differing impact assessments from different DGVMs, it is necessary to assess the “vulnerability” of the forest ecosystems and forest dependent communities to current climate risks and future climate change and to develop and implement resilience or adaptation measures. Assessment of the “vulnerability” and designing of the adaptation strategies could be undertaken for all the forested grids where both IBIS and LPJ project vegetation shifts.