An examination of the empirical derivatives of the favourite-longshot bias in racetrack betting
An examination of the empirical derivatives of the favourite-longshot bias in racetrack betting
复制标题
赛马场投注中热门冷门偏差的经验导数检验
DOI：
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Travis Raines
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Sobel;S. Travis Raines
市场效率决定了将赌注押在任何参赛者身上都是同样有利可图的，包括最受欢迎的参赛者和最有希望的参赛者。然而，一个有据可查的反常现象是，赛马场投注者倾向于过高押注远投，而低估最受欢迎的赌注。这项研究提出并测试了对这种最受欢迎的远射偏向的两种理论解释。数据的无与伦比的丰富性使我们能够探索偏差如何随着几个关键变量的变化而变化。本研究发现，目前最流行的解释偏差的风险偏好模型不能像基于信息的模型那样解释数据，在该模型中，偏差取决于赌注的复杂性和投注者所拥有的信息。
Market efficiency dictates it equally profitable to bet on any racing participant, including the favourite or longshot. However, a well-documented anomaly is that racetrack bettors tend to overbet longshots and underbet favourites. This study presents and tests two theoretical explanations for this favourite-longshot bias. The unparalleled richness of the data allows the exploration of how the bias changes with several key variables. This study finds the most popular current explanation for the bias, the risk preference model, cannot explain the data as well as an information-based model, in which the bias depends on bet complexity and the information possessed by bettors.