A glimpse into the future of exposure and vulnerabilities in cities? Modelling of residential location choice of urban population with random forest

A glimpse into the future of exposure and vulnerabilities in cities? Modelling of residential location choice of urban population with random forest
复制标题

一睹城市暴露和脆弱性的未来?

DOI:
--
复制
发表时间:
2020
影响因子:
4.6
通讯作者:
Thilo Wellmann
Thilo Wellmann
中科院分区:
地球科学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
S. Scheuer;D. Haase;A. Haase;Manuel Wolff;Thilo Wellmann

文献摘要

被引文献

相似文献

抽象的。评估自然灾害风险最常用的方法是调查 在存在或不存在这种风险的情况下支付的意愿。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种新的,基于机器学习的,间接的方法来解决这个问题, 即通过住宅选择模型。尤其是在城市环境中, 暴露和脆弱性是高度动态的风险组成部分, 通过复杂和持续的资产重组和重新分配 在城市空间内,包括城市居民的(重新)安置。通过 在德国的莱比锡市, 寻求研究如何暴露和脆弱性是由居住地点的选择过程。所提出的方法揭示了热点和冷 为不同社会经济群体选择的住宅点, 异质偏好我们讨论观察到的 通过暴露和脆弱性的透镜, 以及与城市规划的联系,并探讨拟议的方法如何 有助于预测暴露、脆弱性和风险的未来趋势 通过这种分析。未来研究的途径包括 在业务上加强这些联系,以更有效地应对灾害风险 管理
Abstract. The most common approach to assessing natural hazard risk is investigating the willingness to pay in the presence or absence of such risk. In this work, we propose a new, machine-learning-based, indirect approach to the problem, i.e. through residential-choice modelling. Especially in urban environments, exposure and vulnerability are highly dynamic risk components, both being shaped by a complex and continuous reorganization and redistribution of assets within the urban space, including the (re-)location of urban dwellers. By modelling residential-choice behaviour in the city of Leipzig, Germany, we seek to examine how exposure and vulnerabilities are shaped by the residential-location-choice process. The proposed approach reveals hot spots and cold spots of residential choice for distinct socioeconomic groups exhibiting heterogeneous preferences. We discuss the relationship between observed patterns and disaster risk through the lens of exposure and vulnerability, as well as links to urban planning, and explore how the proposed methodology may contribute to predicting future trends in exposure, vulnerability, and risk through this analytical focus. Avenues for future research include the operational strengthening of these linkages for more effective disaster risk management.