Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP Growth Revisited: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach
Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP Growth Revisited: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2484437
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发表时间：
2008-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
B. Huang;M. Hwang;Chin W. Yang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Huang;M. Hwang;Chin W. Yang
本文使用了82个国家1972 - 2002年能源消费和GDP的面板数据。根据世界银行定义的收入水平，数据分为四类：低收入组，中低收入组，中上收入组和高收入组。我们采用的GMM-GARCH方法的面板VAR模型的估计在四个组中的每一个。在此基础上，对能源消费与经济增长之间的因果关系进行了检验和确定。我们发现：（a）在低收入组中，能源消费与经济增长之间不存在因果关系;（B）在中等收入组（中低收入组和中上收入组）中，经济增长正向引导能源消费;（c）在高收入组国家中，经济增长负向引导能源消费。在进一步深入分析能源相关数据后，结果表明，在高收入群体中，由于更有效地使用能源和减少二氧化碳排放，环境得到了很大改善。但是，在中上收入国家，能源危机后，能源效率下降，二氧化碳排放量上升。由于没有证据表明能源消费在四个收入群体中的任何一个中导致经济增长，因此所有国家都应采取更强有力的节能政策。
This paper uses the panel data of energy consumption and GDP for 82 countries from 1972 to 2002. Based on the income levels defined by the World Bank, the data are divided into four categories: low income group, lower middle income group, upper middle income group, and high income group. We employ the GMM-SYS approach for the estimation of the panel VAR model in each of the four groups. Afterwards, the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is tested and ascertained. We discover: (a) in the low income group, there exists no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth; (b) in the middle income groups (lower and upper middle income groups), economic growth leads energy consumption positively; (c) in the high income group countries, economic growth leads energy consumption negatively. After further in-depth analysis of energy related data, the results indicate that, in the high income group, there is a great environmental improvement as a result of more efficient energy use and reduction in the release of CO2. However, in the upper middle income group countries, after the energy crisis, the energy efficiency declines and the release of CO2 rises. Since there is no evidence indicating that energy consumption leads economic growth in any of the four income groups, a stronger energy conservation policy should be pursued in all countries.