Relationship between heatwave‐induced forest die‐off and climatic suitability in multiple tree species
Relationship between heatwave‐induced forest die‐off and climatic suitability in multiple tree species
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热浪引起的森林死亡与多种树种气候适宜性的关系
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.15042
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
F. Lloret
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Margalef;M. A. Pérez‐Navarro;F. Lloret
近几十年来，据报道，许多森林死亡事件与气候变化引起的事件有关，如干旱和热浪。为了了解这些极端气候事件如何导致森林死亡，重要的是找到一种工具，将不同种群在特定气候事件期间经历的气候条件标准化，同时考虑到这些种群所在地点的历史气候条件(生物气候生态位)。在这项研究中，我们使用从物种分布模型(SDMS)计算的气候适宜性估计来实现这一目的。我们研究了2003年影响西欧的热浪期间法国各地的森林死亡情况，使用了以14个单一树种为主的2943个森林调查样地。利用中分辨率成像光谱仪遥感图像，通过归一化差异植被指数(NDVI)损失来估计死亡严重程度。通过使用切尔萨气候数据库的增强回归树模型和从欧洲森林名录中提取的发生次数，计算了每个物种在1979-2002年历史时期的地方气候适宜性(Hcs)、发生时间(2003；ECS)和历史时期的适宜性偏差(Hcs-SD)。低HCS-SD和高年平均温度解释了不同单一物种森林容易死亡的总体区域格局。高历史气候适宜性和低历史气候适宜性的结合也对森林总体死亡做出了重要贡献。此外，我们观察到灭绝脆弱性和气候适宜性之间的不同物种特定关系：次地中海和地中海物种往往在历史上更适宜的地区(高HCS)容易受到伤害，而欧洲-西伯利亚物种在热旱事件更强烈时表现出更大的脆弱性。我们论证了在区域尺度上，过去的气候遗迹在解释该事件期间NDVI损失方面起着重要作用。此外，我们还证明了SDMS派生的指数，如HCS、ECS和HCS-SD，可以成为标准化种群和物种经历气候变化的时空方式的工具。
In recent decades, many forest die‐off events have been reported in relation to climate‐change‐induced episodes, such as droughts and heat waves. To understand how these extreme climatic events induce forest die‐off, it is important to find a tool to standardize the climatic conditions experienced by different populations during a specific climatic event, taking into account the historic climatic conditions of the site where these populations live (bioclimatic niche). In this study, we used estimates of climatic suitability calculated from species distribution models (SDMs) for such purpose. We studied forest die‐off across France during the 2003 heatwave that affected Western Europe, using 2,943 forest inventory plots dominated by 14 single tree species. Die‐off severity was estimated by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) loss using Moderate‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer remote sensor imagery. Climatic suitability at the local level during the historical 1979–2002 period (HCS), the episode time (2003; ECS) and suitability deviance during the historical period (HCS‐SD) were calculated for each species by means of boosted regression tree models using the CHELSA climate database and occurrences extracted from European forest inventories. Low HCS‐SD and high mean annual temperature explained the overall regional pattern of vulnerability to die‐off across different monospecific forests. The combination of high historical and low episode climatic suitability also contributed significantly to overall forest die‐off. Furthermore, we observed different species‐specific relationships between die‐off vulnerability and climatic suitability: Sub‐Mediterranean and Mediterranean species tended to be vulnerable in historically more suitable localities (high HCS), whereas Euro‐Siberian species presented greater vulnerability when the hot drought episode was more intense. We demonstrated that at regional scale, past climatic legacy plays an important role in explaining NDVI loss during the episode. Moreover, we demonstrated that SDMs‐derived indexes, such as HCS, ECS and HCS‐SD, could constitute a tool for standardizing the ways that populations and species experience climatic variability across time and space.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0505734102
发表时间：
2005-10-18
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Breshears, DD;Cobb, NS;Meyer, CW
通讯作者：
Meyer, CW