Attributing the increase in Northern Hemisphere hot summers since the late 20th century
Attributing the increase in Northern Hemisphere hot summers since the late 20th century
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DOI：
10.1002/2014gl061062
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发表时间：
2014-07-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Kimoto, Masahide
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kamae, Youichi;Shiogama, Hideo;Kimoto, Masahide
自20世纪后期以来，夏季异常高温的发生频率越来越高。目前尚不清楚为什么尽管最近全球地表气温的上升速度有所放缓，但炎热的夏季却变得越来越频繁。为了研究影响北半球炎热夏季频率历史变化的因素，我们利用大气环流模式进行了三组集合模拟。该模式准确地再现了炎热夏季发生的年际变化和长期增加。太平洋和大西洋的年代际变化占北半球中纬度地区最近增加的43 +/- 27%。此外，自20世纪后期以来，人为强迫的直接影响也有助于增加频率。结果表明，即使全球平均地表变暖持续放缓，未来十年极端高温也会变得更加频繁。
Anomalously high summertime temperatures have occurred with increasing frequency since the late 20th century. It is not clear why hot summers are becoming more frequent despite the recent slowdown in the rise in global surface air temperature. To examine factors affecting the historical variation in the frequency of hot summers over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), we conducted three sets of ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model. The model accurately reproduced interannual variation and long-term increase in the occurrence of hot summers. Decadal variabilities in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans accounted for 43 +/- 27% of the recent increase over the NH middle latitudes. In addition, direct influence of anthropogenic forcing also contributes to increasing the frequency since the late 20th century. The results suggest that the heat extremes can become more frequent in the coming decade even with the persistent slowdown in the global-mean surface warming.