Vehicle survival patterns in China
Vehicle survival patterns in China
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DOI：
10.1007/s11431-010-4256-1
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发表时间：
2011-03-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Cheng Fei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hao Han;Wang HeWu;Cheng Fei
车辆生存模式描述了车辆生存率随着车龄增长而下降的过程。车辆平均寿命和车辆报废强度是车辆生存模式的关键特征，对于预测中国车辆报废和保有量具有重要意义。在本研究中，我们采用威布尔分布对中国九类车辆的车辆生存模式进行建模，并获得了车辆生存率函数。据测算，私人乘用车、公务用车、非运营客车、重型、中型和轻型卡车的平均寿命分别为14.5年、13.1年、11.5年、12.8年、10.1年和8年。这些车辆的报废强度相似。出租车、公交客车和非公交运营客车平均寿命为5年、9年、5.5年，强制报废模式。我国的车辆报废主要通过强制报废标准规定的车辆行驶里程上限来监管。
The vehicle survival pattern describes the process that the survival ratio of vehicles decreases with the growth of vehicle age. Vehicle average life span and vehicle scrappage intensity are the key features of vehicle survival patterns and are important for the projection of China's vehicle scrappage and ownership. In this study, we modeled the vehicle survival patterns of nine classifications of vehicles in China by employing the Weibull distribution, and obtained the vehicle survival ratio functions. It is estimated that the average life spans of private passenger vehicles, government and business vehicles, non-operating buses, heavy duty, medium duty and light duty trucks are 14.5, 13.1, 11.5, 12.8, 10.1, and 8 years, respectively. The scrappage intensities of these vehicles are similar. Average life spans of taxis, transit buses and non-transit operating buses are 5, 9, and 5.5 years with the pattern of mandatory scrappage. Vehicle scrappages in China are mainly regulated by the upper limits of vehicle distances traveled specified by the compulsory scrappage standards.