A Markov-Transition Model for Cascading Failures in Power Grids
A Markov-Transition Model for Cascading Failures in Power Grids
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DOI：
10.1109/hicss.2012.63
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发表时间：
2012-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Zhifang Wang;A. Scaglione;R. Thomas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhifang Wang;A. Scaglione;R. Thomas
电网是一个复杂的关键基础设施网络。其互连性可实现长距离电力传输，从而实现更高效的系统运行。然而，相同的互连性也允许干扰的传播。事实上，由于这种传播的固有电气特性以及由此触发的物理机制，会发生因级联故障而导致的停电。在本文中，我们提出了一种随机马尔可夫模型，其转移概率源自流量重新分配的随机模型，可以潜在地捕获级联故障的进展及其时间跨度。我们建议应监控一个指标，以揭示失败的风险以及执行纠正措施的剩余时间。最后我们在 IEEE 300 总线系统上对所提出的随机模型进行实验并提供数值分析。
The electric power grid is a complex critical infrastructure network. Its inter-connectivity enables long-distance transmission of power for more efficient system operation. The same inter-connectivity, however, also allows the propagation of disturbances. In fact, blackouts due to cascading failures occur because of the intrinsic electrical properties of this propagation and physical mechanisms that are triggered by it. In this paper we propose a stochastic Markov model, whose transition probabilities are derived from a stochastic model for the flow redistribution, that can potentially capture the progression of cascading failures and its time span. We suggest a metric that should be monitored to expose the risk of failure and the time margin that is left to perform corrective action. Finally we experiment with the proposed stochastic model on the IEEE 300 bus system and provide numerical analysis.