Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis
Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis
复制标题
古气候模型集合与 MARGO 数据合成一致吗
DOI：
10.5194/cp-7-917-2011
复制
发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
J. Annan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Hargreaves;A. Paul;R. Ohgaito;A. Abe‐Ouchi;J. Annan
摘要。利用多代理方法重建冰川海洋表面（MARGO）海面温度数据合成，研究了气候模式模拟的不同组合的一致性。我们发现，虽然通过古气候模式比对项目（PMIP和PMIP2）创建的两个多模式集合通过了我们简单的可靠性测试，但基于单一模式参数变化的集合表现不太好。我们表明，在MARGO数据库中考虑观测不确定性对于正确评估集合是至关重要的。也许令人惊讶的是，耦合动力海洋（与平板海洋的使用相比）似乎并没有导致海面温度异常更广泛的传播，而是引起了更多的热量在大西洋向北输送的系统变化。有微弱的证据表明，海面温度数据可能更符合北大西洋经向翻转在LGM和今天是相似的。然而，PMIP2集合的小尺寸阻止了任何具有统计意义的结果的获得。
Abstract. We investigate the consistency of various ensembles of climate model simulations with the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO) sea surface temperature data synthesis. We discover that while two multi-model ensembles, created through the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Projects (PMIP and PMIP2), pass our simple tests of reliability, an ensemble based on parameter variation in a single model does not perform so well. We show that accounting for observational uncertainty in the MARGO database is of prime importance for correctly evaluating the ensembles. Perhaps surprisingly, the inclusion of a coupled dynamical ocean (compared to the use of a slab ocean) does not appear to cause a wider spread in the sea surface temperature anomalies, but rather causes systematic changes with more heat transported north in the Atlantic. There is weak evidence that the sea surface temperature data may be more consistent with meridional overturning in the North Atlantic being similar for the LGM and the present day. However, the small size of the PMIP2 ensemble prevents any statistically significant results from being obtained.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
J. Lynch‐Stieglitz;J. Adkins;W. Curry;T. Dokken;I. Hall;J. Herguera;J. Hirschi;E. Ivanova;
通讯作者：
J. Lynch‐Stieglitz;J. Adkins;W. Curry;T. Dokken;I. Hall;J. Herguera;J. Hirschi;E. Ivanova;