The Taylor Rule in Japan
The Taylor Rule in Japan
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日本的泰勒规则
DOI：
10.2753/jes1097-203x380204
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Kensuke Miyazawa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kensuke Miyazawa
本文的目的是从成为金融政策评价标准的泰勒规则的角度，重新审视日本的金融政策。泰勒规则是设定银行利率的规则，其中名义银行利率表示为通货膨胀率和国内生产总值（GDP）缺口的线性函数。近年来，在微观经济分析中，泰勒规则越来越多地被用于制定金融政策，并且正在努力分析规则本身。在本文中，我首先介绍了在日本的泰勒规则的实证分析的结果。在根据泰勒规则分析银行利率时，银行利率对通货膨胀率和GDP缺口的反应系数很重要。大多数实证分析表明，在值略有差异，但表明值属于参数，在很大程度上与理论一致。接下来，我在改变各种参数后对这些实证分析进行了补充检验。尽管如此，在许多情况下，我取得的结果与以前的研究相似，这表明这些研究的结果是稳定的。最后，我通过比较泰勒规则和实际的赎回利率来评估银行利率。结果表明，虽然实证分析中所关注的参数值得到了确认，但在思考实际的金融政策时仍存在一些问题。具体而言，什么指标反映了真实的均衡利率？中央银行必须考虑的商品价格是什么？计算GDP差距时考虑的潜在GDP是多少？
The purpose of this article is to reexamine Japan's financial policies from the perspective of the Taylor rule, which has become the standard for assessing financial policies. The Taylor rule is a rule for setting the bank rate, whereby the nominal bank rate is expressed as a linear function of the inflation rate and gross domestic product (GDP) gap. In microeconomic analyses in recent years, the Taylor rule has been increasingly used for setting financial policies, and efforts are being promoted to analyze the rule itself. In this article, I start by presenting the results of an empirical analysis of the Taylor rule in Japan. When analyzing bank rates vis-à-vis the Taylor rule, the reaction factor of the bank rate to the inflation rate and GDP gap are important. Most empirical analyses show slight differences in the values, but indicate that the values fall within parameters that are largely consistent with the theory. Next, I performed a supplementary examination of these empirical analyses after changing various parameters. Nonetheless, in many cases, I achieved results similar to those produced by previous studies, suggesting that the results of those studies are stable. Finally, I assess the bank rate by comparing the Taylor rule and the actual call rate. The results show that even though the parameter values focused on in the empirical analyses are confirmed, there are several problems to be addressed when it comes to thinking about actual financial policies. Specifically, what indicator reflects the real equilibrium interest rate? What are the prices of goods that the central bank must take into consideration? And what is the potential GDP that is taken into consideration when calculating the GDP gap?