Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years-猫眼课题宝

DOI：

10.1038/s41586-019-1529-0

发表时间：

2019-09

期刊：

Nature

影响因子：

64.8

通讯作者：

中科院分区：

综合性期刊1区

文献类型：

作者：

B. Wagner;H. Vogel;A. Francke;T. Friedrich;T. Donders;J. Lacey;M. Leng;E. Regattieri;L. Sadori;T. Wilke;G. Zanchetta;C. Albrecht;A. Bertini;N. Combourieu-Nebout;A. Cvetkoska;B. Giaccio;A. Grazhdani;T. Hauffe;J. Holtvoeth;S. Joannin;E. Jovanovska;J. Just;K. Kouli;Ilias Kousis;A. Koutsodendris;S. Krastel;M. Lagos;N. Leicher;Z. Levkov;K. Lindhorst;A. Masi;M. Melles;A. Mercuri;S. Nomade;N. Nowaczyk;Konstantinos Panagiotopoulos;O. Peyron;J. Reed;L. Sagnotti;Gaia Sinopoli;Björn Stelbrink;R. Sulpizio;A. Timmermann;S. Tofilovska;P. Torri;F. Wagner-Cremer;T. Wonik;Xiaosen Zhang

地中海气候的特点是干燥的夏季和潮湿的冬季之间强烈的季节性对比。冬季降水变化对区域社会经济发展至关重要，但在第四纪时间尺度上难以精确模拟和重建。这部分是因为覆盖多个冰川-间冰期循环、具有不同轨道几何形状、全球冰量和大气温室气体浓度的区域水文气候记录很少。此外，变化的根本机制及其持续性仍未得到探讨。在这里，我们表明，在过去的136万年，在地中海中北部的潮湿的冬天往往会发生在当地的高对比度，季节性日照和一个充满活力的非洲夏季季风。我们的代理时间序列从奥赫里德湖的巴尔干半岛的半岛，连同一个784,000年的瞬态气候模型后报，表明增加海面温度放大当地气旋的发展和加油北大西洋低压系统，进入地中海在低大陆冰量和高浓度的大气温室气体的阶段。与现代再分析数据的比较表明，地中海降雨量的当前驱动因素与驱动重建的降水增加的驱动因素有一些相似之处。我们的数据涵盖了多个日照最大值，因此是测试气候模型性能的重要基准。

Mediterranean climates are characterized by strong seasonal contrasts between dry summers and wet winters. Changes in winter rainfall are critical for regional socioeconomic development, but are difficult to simulate accurately and reconstruct on Quaternary timescales. This is partly because regional hydroclimate records that cover multiple glacial–interglacial cycles,with different orbital geometries, global ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are scarce. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of change and their persistence remain unexplored. Here we show that, over the past 1.36 million years, wet winters in the northcentral Mediterranean tend to occur with high contrasts in local, seasonal insolation and a vigorous African summer monsoon. Our proxy time series from Lake Ohrid on the Balkan Peninsula, together with a 784,000-year transient climate model hindcast, suggest that increased sea surface temperatures amplify local cyclone development and refuel North Atlantic low-pressure systems that enter the Mediterranean during phases of low continental ice volume and high concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. A comparison with modern reanalysis data shows that current drivers of the amount of rainfall in the Mediterranean share some similarities to those that drive the reconstructed increases in precipitation. Our data cover multiple insolation maxima and are therefore an important benchmark for testing climate model performance.

Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years

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