Estimating societal effects of COVID-19
Estimating societal effects of COVID-19
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估计 COVID-19 的社会影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
I. Grossmann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cendri A. C. Hutcherson;Constantine Sharpinskyi;Michael E. W. Varnum;A. Rotella;Alexandra S. Wormley;L. Tay;I. Grossmann
对全球危机的有效管理依赖于对其社会影响的专家判断。这样的判断有多准确呢？在2020年春天，我们要求行为科学家（N = 717）和非专业美国人（N = 394）在社会和心理领域对COVID-19大流行相关的社会变化做出预测。六个月后，我们获得了相同领域的回顾性评估（Nscientists = 270; NlayPeople = 411）。科学家和非专业人士在判断COVID的影响时同样不准确，无论是在前瞻性预测和回顾性评估中，还是在使用定向和秩序估计时。对于这两组人来说，估计的变化幅度相差超过20%。不到一半的参与者准确地预测了变化的方向。至关重要的是，这些见解与公众对行为科学家预测这些变化的能力的看法背道而驰（NlayPeople = 203; Nacademics/policy-makers = 30）：行为科学家被认为最有可能准确预测社会变化，并且在广泛的专业领域中最受欢迎。综合来看，我们发现行为科学家和非专业人士在预测大流行的社会后果方面表现不佳，并且误解了它可能已经产生的影响。
Effective management of global crises relies on expert judgment of their societal effects. How accurate are such judgments? In the spring of 2020, we asked behavioral scientists (N = 717) and lay Americans (N = 394) to make predictions about COVID-19 pandemic-related societal change across social and psychological domains. Six months later we obtained retrospective assessments for the same domains (Nscientists = 270; NlayPeople = 411). Scientists and lay people were equally inaccurate in judging COVID’s impact, both in prospective predictions and retrospective assessments, and when using both directional and rank-order estimates. For both groups, the magnitude of estimated change was off by more than 20%. Less than half of participants accurately predicted the direction of changes. Critically, these insights go against public perceptions of behavioral scientists’ ability to forecast such changes (NlayPeople = 203; Nacademics/policy-makers = 30): behavioral scientists were considered most likely to accurately predict societal change and most sought after for recommendations across a wide range of professions. Taken together, we find that behavioral scientists and lay people fared poorly at predicting the societal consequences of the pandemic and misperceived what effects it may have already had.