Punishment or Protest? Understanding European Parliament Elections
Punishment or Protest? Understanding European Parliament Elections
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惩罚还是抗议？
DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00546.x
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Michael Marsh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Hix;Michael Marsh
在六轮欧洲议会选举之后，选民们主要是利用这些选举来惩罚他们的国家政府还是表达他们对欧洲问题的看法？我们通过观察所有25个欧盟国家的所有欧洲选举（1979 - 2004）来回答这个问题。我们发现，近40%的波动，在欧洲选举中的政党投票份额相比，国家选举是由选票从大和执政党转移到小和反对党。尽管如此，反欧盟政党和绿色政党在欧洲选举中的平均表现要好于全国选举。但这些"欧洲效应"是次要的，一个政党对欧洲采取的立场与其表现基本无关。因此，尽管欧洲议会的权力越来越大，但无论是在欧洲一体化问题上的立场，还是在"正常"的左右政策问题上的立场，都对选举结果没有多大影响。
After six sets of European Parliament elections, do voters primarily use these elections to punish their national governments or to express their views on European issues? We answer this question by looking at all European elections (1979–2004) in all 25 EU states. We find that almost 40% of the volatility in party vote-shares in European elections compared to national elections is explained by the transfer of votes from large and governing parties to small and opposition parties. Nevertheless, anti-EU parties and green parties on average do better in European elections than in national elections. But these “European effects” are minor, and the position a party takes on Europe is largely irrelevant to its performance. Hence, despite the growing powers of the European Parliament, neither positions on matters regarding European integration, nor on matters regarding “normal” left-right policy, have much of an effect on electoral outcomes.