Distribution probability of large-scale landslides in central Nepal
Distribution probability of large-scale landslides in central Nepal
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DOI：
10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.05.031
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发表时间：
2014-12
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Manita Timilsina;N. Bhandary;R. Dahal;R. Yatabe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Manita Timilsina;N. Bhandary;R. Dahal;R. Yatabe
喜马拉雅山的大规模山体滑坡被定义为过去地质时期发生的巨大、深层山体滑坡体。分布于尼泊尔喜马拉雅山脉。陡峭的地形和高局部救济提供了这种故障的高可能性，而动态地质和不利的气候条件在发生和重新激活这种滑坡的关键作用。与此类大型滑坡相关的主要地学问题是：1）难以识别和描绘，2）小规模破坏的来源，3）重新激活。关于尼泊尔大规模滑坡的科学出版物很少。在这方面，确定和量化大规模滑坡及其潜在分布至关重要。因此，本研究探讨在小喜马拉雅山的大型滑坡的分布。它提供了简单的指导方针，以确定大型滑坡的典型特征的基础上，使用三维示意图。根据滑坡的空间分布、地貌地质参数和Logistic回归，建立了大型滑坡的空间分布方程。通过将其应用于另一个区域来验证该方程。新区滑坡分布概率的接收机工作曲线下面积为0.699，一个分布概率值可以解释大于65%的现有滑坡。因此，回归方程可以应用于尼泊尔中部小喜马拉雅山具有相似地质和地貌条件的地区。
Large-scale landslides in the Himalaya are defined as huge, deep-seated landslide masses that occurred in the geological past. They are widely distributed in the Nepal Himalaya. The steep topography and high local relief provide high potential for such failures, whereas the dynamic geology and adverse climatic conditions play a key role in the occurrence and reactivation of such landslides. The major geoscientific problems related with such large-scale landslides are 1) difficulties in their identification and delineation, 2) sources of small-scale failures, and 3) reactivation. Only a few scientific publications have been published concerning large-scale landslides in Nepal. In this context, the identification and quantification of large-scale landslides and their potential distribution are crucial. Therefore, this study explores the distribution of large-scale landslides in the Lesser Himalaya. It provides simple guidelines to identify large-scale landslides based on their typical characteristics and using a 3D schematic diagram. Based on the spatial distribution of landslides, geomorphological/geological parameters and logistic regression, an equation of large-scale landslide distribution is also derived. The equation is validated by applying it to another area. For the new area, the area under the receiver operating curve of the landslide distribution probability in the new area is 0.699, and a distribution probability value could explain > 65% of existing landslides. Therefore, the regression equation can be applied to areas of the Lesser Himalaya of central Nepal with similar geological and geomorphological conditions.