Application of gray linear regression model for forecast of port throughput
Application of gray linear regression model for forecast of port throughput
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发表时间：
2010
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通讯作者：
Gu Hao
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作者：
Gu Hao
利用灰色模型和回归模型，分别建立了基于最小二乘原理和有效性指标原理的两种灰色线性回归模型，并应用这两种模型对镇江港吞吐量进行了预测，得出以下结论：基于最小二乘原理的灰色线性回归模型的预测精度优于简单灰色模型和线性回归模型模型，该模型应作为镇江港吞吐量预测的最优上级模型，基于效用指标原理的灰色线性回归模型预测精度较低，但作为一种组合模型，它能综合多种信息，用于港口吞吐量预测具有一定的实用性。
By using the gray model and regression model,two kinds of gray linear regression models are set up on the basis of the least square and effectiveness indicator principles respectively.Applying these models to forecast the throughput of Zhenjiang port,the following conclusions can be drawn: The forecast precision of gray linear regression model based on the least square principle is better than that of the simple gray model and linear regression model.This model should be taken as the most superior model in forecasting Zhenjiang port's throughput.The forecast precision of gray linear regression model based on the effectiveness indicator principle is relatively low.But as a combined model,it can synthesize the multiple messages,so it has certain practicability when used to forecast port throughput.