Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic.
Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0131871
复制
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Bar-Yam Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Harmon D;Lagi M;de Aguiar MA;Chinellato DD;Braha D;Epstein IR;Bar-Yam Y
预测恐慌在人类和动物行为的许多领域都至关重要，特别是在经济学的背景下。最近的金融危机就是一个很好的例子。恐慌可能是由于特定的外部威胁或自我产生的紧张。在这里，我们表明，最近的经济危机和早期的大规模单日恐慌之前，市场模仿的高水平延长的时期，不确定性和紧张的直接证据，以及相对较弱的外部消息的影响。高度的模仿可能是自我组织危机潜力的一个相当普遍的指标。
Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and earlier large single-day panics were preceded by extended periods of high levels of market mimicry—direct evidence of uncertainty and nervousness, and of the comparatively weak influence of external news. High levels of mimicry can be a quite general indicator of the potential for self-organized crises.