Simulating Immunization Campaigns and Vaccine Protection Against COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil
Simulating Immunization Campaigns and Vaccine Protection Against COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil
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DOI：
10.1109/access.2021.3112036
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发表时间：
2021-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Cuminato, Jose A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Amaral, Fabio;Casaca, Wallace;Cuminato, Jose A.
疫苗的推出目前已确立了抗击COVID-19的新趋势。在许多国家，随着疫苗接种覆盖率的提高，经济和社会混乱正在逐步减少，给人民带来更多的信心和希望。然而，一个关键的辩论与公平获得疫苗有关，这将导致发展中国家加快疫苗接种的步伐。另一个重要问题是，免疫接种如何影响这些国家对新型冠状病毒感染、死亡和传播的控制。在这项工作中，我们通过采用一种新的数据驱动方法，研究了疫苗接种率对COVID-19流行曲线的影响，该方法基于修改后的易感-感染-感染模型和机器学习设计。数据驱动的方法被应用于评估在巴西接种的疫苗对抗击病毒的影响。本研究还探讨了疫苗效力和免疫速度对免疫效果的影响。最后，我们发现，使用低/中等效力的抗SARS-CoV-2疫苗可以通过更快地免疫更大比例的人群来抵消。
The vaccine roll-out has currently established a new trend in the fight against COVID-19. In many countries, as vaccination cover rises, the economic and social disruptions are being progressively reduced, bringing more confidence and hope to the population. However, a crucial debate is related to fair access to vaccines, which would lead to stepping up the pace of vaccination in developing countries. Another important issue is how immunization has influenced the control of the infection, deaths, and transmissibility of the new coronavirus in these countries. In this work, we investigate the effects of the rate of vaccination on the COVID-19 epidemic curves, by employing a new data-driven methodology, formulated on the basis of a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model and Machine Learning designs. The data-driven methodology is applied to assess the influence of the vaccines administered in Brazil on the fight against the virus. The impacts of vaccine efficacy and immunization speed are also investigated in our study. Finally, we have found that the use of anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccines with a low/moderate efficacy can be offset by immunizing a larger proportion of the population more quickly.