Streamflow prediction using multi-site rainfall obtained from hydroclimatic teleconnection
Streamflow prediction using multi-site rainfall obtained from hydroclimatic teleconnection
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.10.004
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发表时间：
2010-12-06
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Maity, Rajib
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kashid, S. S.;Ghosh, Subimal;Maity, Rajib
相隔很远的地区的天气和气候的同时变化通常被称为“水文气候遥相关”。通过这种水文气候遥相关，发现各大洲的降雨和径流模式与大规模环流模式有很大的遥相关。统计技术和人工智能(AI)工具因其捕捉预报因子(如海面温度)和预报因子(如降雨量)之间的复杂关系的能力，在模拟水文气候遥相关方面越来越受欢迎。遗传规划就是这样一种人工智能工具，由于其灵活的功能结构，它能够捕捉到预测者和预测者之间的非线性关系。本文利用遗传规划方法，从厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)指数、赤道印度洋涛动(EQUINOO)指数、输出长波辐射(OLR)和网格点滞后降水等方面预报了格点多站点的周降雨量，并将预报的降雨量进一步用于遗传规划模型的径流预报。将该模型应用于印度马哈纳迪河径流的周预报，取得了较好的效果。(C)2010爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
Simultaneous variations in weather and climate over widely separated regions are commonly known as "hydroclimatic teleconnections". Rainfall and runoff patterns, over continents, are found to be significantly teleconnected, with large-scale circulation patterns, through such hydroclimatic teleconnections. Though such teleconnections exist in nature, it is very difficult to model them, due to their inherent complexity.Statistical techniques and Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools gain popularity in modeling hydroclimatic teleconnection, based on their ability, in capturing the complicated relationship between the predictors (e.g. sea surface temperatures) and predictand (e.g., rainfall). Genetic Programming is such an AI tool, which is capable of capturing nonlinear relationship, between predictor and predictand, due to its flexible functional structure. In the present study, gridded multi-site weekly rainfall is predicted from El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) indices, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and lag rainfall at grid points, over the catchment, using Genetic Programming.The predicted rainfall is further used in a Genetic Programming model to predict streamflows. The model is applied for weekly forecasting of streamflow in Mahanadi River, India, and satisfactory performance is observed. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.