Estimates of the potential for energy conservation and CO2 emissions mitigation based on Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM): the case of the iron and steel industry in China
Estimates of the potential for energy conservation and CO2 emissions mitigation based on Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM): the case of the iron and steel industry in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2013.09.008
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发表时间：
2014-02
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Zongguo Wen;Fanxin Meng;Min Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zongguo Wen;Fanxin Meng;Min Chen
为评价2010 - 2020年中国钢铁工业节能减排潜力，基于亚太一体化模型（AIM）建立了中国钢铁工业节能减排的详细模型。为描述未来钢铁产业发展的政策措施，设定了“一切照旧”（BAU）情景、“综合政策”（INT）情景和“强化政策”（STR）情景三种情景。结果表明：2020年STR情景下，可实现节能潜力5820万tce，占总能耗的14.18%，减排潜力2.18亿tCO 2，占预测排放量的14.53%。结果表明，技术进步是节能减排的主要驱动力，而结构调整是节能减排的主要驱动力。为了实现中国钢铁工业“十二五”规划所设定的目标，本质上是促进技术先进的方法，具有高需求的警务率。具体的节能技术可以大大有助于这一事业。从长远来看，中国钢铁工业的节能减排将主要依靠技术推广。
To evaluate the potential for energy conservation and CO2emissions mitigation in China's iron and steel industry during 2010 and 2020, a detailed model was developed and applied based on Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). Three scenarios including the business as usual (BAU) scenario, the integrated policy (INT) scenario and the strengthen policy (STR) scenario have been set to describe future policy measures in relation to the development of the iron and steel industry. Results show that STR scenario in 2020 would realize an additional energy saving potential of 58.2 million tce accounting for 14.18% of the total energy consumption, while the potential for CO2mitigation of 218.0 million ton CO2takes up 14.53% of the predicted emission. And results indicate that technology promotion is the main driver for energy saving and emissions reduction, more than structure adjustment. In order to meet the targets set by the 12th Five-Year Plan in China's iron and steel industry, it is essentially to promote technologically advanced approaches with a high-demand policing rate. Specific energy conservation technologies could aid significantly to the cause. In the long term, energy saving and emissions reduction of China's iron and steel industry will rely mostly on technology promotion.